I love the media!

johnnyturk! · #21 (**permalink**) 05-16-2006, 10:14 PM

All this means is that the terrorists haven't met their recruiting goals either. That does not imply that there hasn't been a huge increase in terror recruitment. Just that it isn't enough. Which is good. But to suggest that this article somehow says that there are fewer terrorist/insurgents now than there were before the invasion... is just... plain.... ignorant.... sorry

Whatever the number they have or have not recruited doesn't matter. It doesn't matter because we are winning. This article proves that we are winning. I think that your statement that there has been a huge increase in terror recruitment is pure speculation. After all you can't prove it. There is not a master list of everyone in Al-Quiada.

OkhamsRazor · #22 (**permalink**) 05-16-2006, 11:21 PM

Quote:

I think that your statement that there has been a huge increase in terror recruitment is pure speculation. After all you can't prove it. There is not a master list of everyone in Al-Quiada.

One thing you will learn about me jt, is that I very rarely express an opinion without something to back it up. I'm kinda funny that way... It's not very comfortable to have your foot in your mouth, so I try to avoid it.

Allow me to share with you, everything you ever wanted to know about the stats in Iraq, (and I'm sure a few you'd rather not).

So I submit to you that you are the one making wild speculation. And if this isn't good enough for you, I have other sources as well.

You will need Adobe Acrobat reader for this.
http://www.brookings.org/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf

The numbers dealing with the insurgents starts on page 17

Furthermore, how incompentent do you think our military planners are? (Dems...shhhhhh) Our soldiers are fighting these guys every day in every large city. They are being attacked on supply routes. Don't ya think we might have just an inkling of what we're up against?

I also fail to see how 50 dead Iraqi civs and 10 dead americans a day is a mere annoyance.

OkhamsRazor · #23 (**permalink**) 05-17-2006, 01:26 AM

Allow me to save you the trouble. For those of you without Acrobat, here is a snipit of the report... Need some sauce for that foot jt?

Quote:

ESTIMATED STRENGTH OF INSURGENCY NATIONWIDE28
Month Estimated strength of insurgency nationwide

November 5,000
December 5,000
January 2004 3, 000-5,000
February N/A
March N/A
April ........................ 5,000
May .........................15,000
June .........................15,000
July .........................20,000
August ......................20,000
September .................20,000
October ....................20,000
November ..................20,000
December “more than ..20,000”
January 2005 .............18,000
February ...................18,000
March .......................16,000
April .........................16,000
May ..........................16,000
June .........................15,000-20,000
July “no more than 20,000”
August N/A
September “neither gaining strength nor weakening appreciably”
(some estimates indicate higher numbers, please see footnote)
October ....................15,000 – 20,000
November ..................15,000 – 20,000
December ..................15,000 – 20,000
January 2006 ..............15,000 – 20,000
February ...................15,000 – 20,000
March .......................15,000 – 20,000
April .........................20,000+

ESTIMATED NUMBER OF FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN THE INSURGENCY29
January 2004 ........................300-500
July “Low hundreds”
September “Fewer than 1,000”
November “Fewer than 1,000”
January 2005 “Fewer than 1,000”
February “Fewer than 1,000”
May ....................................1,000
June ....................................750-1,000
July .....................................750-1,000
August .................................750-1,000
September ............................700 – 2,000
October ................................700 – 2,000
November ..............................700 – 2,000
December .............................700 – 2,000
January 2006 .........................700 – 2,000
February ...............................700 – 2,000
March ..................................700 – 2,000
April .....................................800 – 2,000
19

INSURGENCY INDICATORS30
.................................................. .....2004 2005
Insurgent attacks (total) .................26,496 34,131
Car bombs .........................................420 873
Suicide car bombs ...............................133 411
Roadside bombs ...............................5,607 10,953
US Soldiers Killed .................................848 846
US Soldiers Wounded .........................7989 5939

TERRORISM AND IRAQ
.................................................. ....2004 2005
Number of Terrorist Attacks Worldwide 2,800 11,111
Number of Fatalities Worldwide due to
Terrorist Attacks ..................................N/A 14,600
Number of Terrorist Attacks in Iraq ........1,800 3,474 (~30% of total)
Number of Fatalities in Iraq due to
Terrorist Attacks ................................4,000 8,300 (~55% of total)

YEA!!! We're winning!!

johnnyturk! · #24 (**permalink**) 05-17-2006, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OkhamsRazor

One thing you will learn about me jt, is that I very rarely express an opinion without something to back it up. I'm kinda funny that way... It's not very comfortable to have your foot in your mouth, so I try to avoid it.

Allow me to share with you, everything you ever wanted to know about the stats in Iraq, (and I'm sure a few you'd rather not).

So I submit to you that you are the one making wild speculation. And if this isn't good enough for you, I have other sources as well.

You will need Adobe Acrobat reader for this.
http://www.brookings.org/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf

The numbers dealing with the insurgents starts on page 17

Furthermore, how incompentent do you think our military planners are? (Dems...shhhhhh) Our soldiers are fighting these guys every day in every large city. They are being attacked on supply routes. Don't ya think we might have just an inkling of what we're up against?

I also fail to see how 50 dead Iraqi civs and 10 dead americans a day is a mere annoyance.

Ok stats seem reasonable. I don't about the source but this seems reasonable. 5,000 to 15,000 insurgants? The estimated strength of Al-Quiada is 1,000 world wide. Okay that seems reasonable too but again these are just estimates. Even if those numbers are correct they are very low. That is why I imagine the leadership of Al-Quiada is scared. They don't have a lot of people and they haven't been able to stop us or a new government from being formed. All these numbers prove is taht we vaslty out number the insurgants and Al-Quida. As to 50 Iraqi civilians being killed a day....that is cost of freedom. It also hasn't stopped them from voting in droves or from volunterring to serve in the Iraqi military. These stats would only seem to prove my point.

OkhamsRazor · #25 (**permalink**) 05-17-2006, 10:18 AM

My point is, winning or not, at this stage it is a matter pf perception.

For example, did you know that US reconstruction is nearing an end? Within the next year we will declare our job finished. However, only about a quarter of the projects we said we'd finish will be any where near completed. Why? Because it's too dangerous to in Iraq. Why, the insurgency is doing it's job. They can't get the parts and supplies they need because the highways are deathtraps. Once they get them, they can't finish because of attacks or kidnappings. If they do finish them, they become targets and are damaged or destroyed.

That's just one example. Basing your "We're winning" position on a letter from an obviously demoralized insurgent grunt is not firm footing.

My point was also to show you that, yes, I can prove there are more terrorists now than there were at the start of the war, by orders of magnitude.

As far as whether we are winning or not... we shall see.

Oh, and the source?... The Brookings Institute is a 90 year old independent, non-partisan research organization.

Sam · #26 (**permalink**) 05-17-2006, 11:58 AM

Okham...Like I said you raise the bar in every thread. Excellent resource referenced!

Another point to be made. This war was wrong but now that we are in it I want success. Success to me means Iraqis have a government that is workable, security and infrastructure is restored in their country. However it is not just about winning JT... I am sure if we waged war on Cuba, Canada, Mexico, Thailand, New Zealand,Jordan....the list goes on, we could "win".

We want success for all parties,not just numbers killed and winning. this is not a football game.

Now I am going to make a copy of the excellent report that Okham found and do some reading tonight. Thanks Okham!

johnnyturk! · #27 (**permalink**) 05-17-2006, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OkhamsRazor

My point is, winning or not, at this stage it is a matter pf perception.

For example, did you know that US reconstruction is nearing an end? Within the next year we will declare our job finished. However, only about a quarter of the projects we said we'd finish will be any where near completed. Why? Because it's too dangerous to in Iraq. Why, the insurgency is doing it's job. They can't get the parts and supplies they need because the highways are deathtraps. Once they get them, they can't finish because of attacks or kidnappings. If they do finish them, they become targets and are damaged or destroyed.

That's just one example. Basing your "We're winning" position on a letter from an obviously demoralized insurgent grunt is not firm footing.

My point was also to show you that, yes, I can prove there are more terrorists now than there were at the start of the war, by orders of magnitude.

As far as whether we are winning or not... we shall see.

Oh, and the source?... The Brookings Institute is a 90 year old independent, non-partisan research organization.

It does make me sad that we are going to put construction to an end before the year is out. It could be because of the violence but I think more it has to do with money. You whine about how much we are spending and then when we say we are going to cut costs you whine as well. We can't win. However I want to provide some evidence of what has been accomplished. http://www.defendamerica.mil/iraq/rebuilding.html
Just take a look at any of those projects. Its all good stuff. More than Saddam did. I will be back with more.

johnnyturk! · #28 (**permalink**) 05-17-2006, 10:23 PM

At the same time, the hundreds of Americans and Iraqis who have devoted themselves to the reconstruction effort point to 3,600 projects that the United States has completed or intends to finish before the $18.4 billion runs out around the end of 2006. These include work on 900 schools, construction of hospitals and nearly 160 health care centers and clinics, and repairs on or construction of nearly 800 miles of highways, city streets and village roads.

Tha is from an article in the Washington Post.

http://www.military.com/features/0,1...RC=dodnews.RSS

Also check that artilcle out. Remeber we are dealing with decades of neglect under Saddam. The US can't take the bruden alone. We have to draw the line at some point. We have done a lot and will continue to do a lot. However they have a government now and are started to take the lead in many operations.

johnnyturk! · #29 (**permalink**) 05-17-2006, 10:31 PM

That's just one example. Basing your "We're winning" position on a letter from an obviously demoralized insurgent grunt is not firm footing.

I base it on the fact that they have a new perminant government. That the reconstruction is going pretty well. That our recruitment is on par with our goals and that we out number them. You proved that. Also we don't know who wrote the documents it could a grunt as you said or it could be someone of a higher rank. It disturbs me though that this doesn't encourage you at all.

OkhamsRazor · #30 (**permalink**) 05-17-2006, 11:48 PM

Well jt, you misunderstand my position. Never in my life was I patted on the back for doing less than a half-assed job.

My fault is not with anyone working in Iraq. They are absolutely doing the best they can with what they've got. You'll never get an argument about that from me.

New permanent government... What exactly does that mean? Permanent? True they've gotten past the interim stage, but there is nothing permanent about the Iraqi government.

Recruitment on par with goals... The goals were lowered drastically to fit the drop in recruitment to save embarrassment.

Reconstruction going pretty well... Still no. I'm very happy to see all the things that they have been able to accomplish it very unstable situations.

However, only one quarter of the proposed projects are even being worked on, forget about finishing them. After all the disappointing outcomes of such lofty ambitions, time and again, I find it very difficult to jump about such a meager showing. $20 billion spent on reconstruction alone, with another $14 billion pledged from the EU. After all that, they will still be $50 billion short on what still needs to be done.

The presumed point of this thread was, "Why is the media ignoring this?" Because those in the know, know it isn't worth the print. Not in the face of coming up short on EVERY single action we've taken there. If the letter had been written by a top terrorist/insurgent, it would have been noted and would have gotten more play. But it wasn't, so it's relagated to an interest piece.