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Old 05-30-2008, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Cordelier View Post
Hindsight is 20/20, though. If you were President, would you have been willing to take Aziz's word for it?
>>>I would have given Aziz's word just as much weight as Judith Miller's word. Probably more because Aziz is Christian and Miller is, well, Jewish with a dog in the fight.
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  #542 (permalink)  
Old 05-30-2008, 02:26 PM
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You are NOT getting into my Pants Cowardly...
>>>Your pants are already crawling with terrorists.
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  #543 (permalink)  
Old 05-30-2008, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by George O Well View Post
>>>I would have given Aziz's word just as much weight as Judith Miller's word. Probably more because Aziz is Christian and Miller is, well, Jewish with a dog in the fight.
Judith Miller wasn't Vice President of Iraq, though. Yes or no, George... would you have been willing to take his word for it?
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  #544 (permalink)  
Old 05-30-2008, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Cordelier View Post
Wouldn't you need a pair of "future goggles" to be able to conclusively tell that in 2002, though?
Perhaps but then again a study of history might have given us a clue...I stated as such prior to our going in.

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Originally Posted by Cordelier View Post
Guess so. Bush, Sr., also miscalculated in thinking that Iraq wouldn't invade Kuwait in 1990.
On that we disagree...I think Bush Sr. knew full well that Saddam would do that.

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Originally Posted by Cordelier View Post
Do you think there was anything the US could have done to get France and Russia on board for an invasion of Iraq? Or even to just stop them from exercising their Security Council vetoes?
It is possible that by giving Blix the "months" he suggested would resolve the intelligence issue...as I've said before...we should have made that an issue and after a couple to few more months we would have then been much more justified in drawing a line in the sand...an argument could have been made at that point and if France/Germany/Russia didn't get on board...screw 'em.

I know...now comes the argument that Saddam had umteen years and even more resolutions, yada yada yada...BUT...what had changed was that inspections had recently resumed...what was the hurry...hell, the region has been a mess since before the time of Christ...no "goggles" required to see that.
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  #545 (permalink)  
Old 05-30-2008, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Cordelier View Post
Sure, lots of countries have them... but not too many of the countries who do have them had the same aggressive tendencies as Iraq. Look at Saddam's history - he consolidated his hold on power in 1979 and within a year he was invading Iran. Once that war ended, he took a little over a year off to lick his wounds and then he invaded Kuwait. Are you sensing a theme here?
Look, Cord, Saddam was not a good guy....I don't think anyone argues that. The question is....is the price worth the gain. That's what it comes down to. If we could have done this with....
1) more international participation
2) most importantly, more Arab nation participation...especially in the occupation phase
...then maybe. But, in March 2003, when we went in the way we did, I never thought that removing the threat of Saddam Hussien was going to be anywhere near the monetary and geo-political costs. Why should I think that the US/Britain had it right and everyone else including Canada and, most importantly, Iraq's neighbors had it wrong?

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How anxious do you figure the US would have been to militarily tangle with Saddam over Kuwait if they knew for a fact that he had nuclear weapons?
Less so....but, we would've done the same thing, IMO. Money talks, Cord. We would've told him that in no uncertain terms the use of WMDs would constitute the end of his ass....I think we did that anyways. Didn't we?

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I'll bet you the Gulf War wouldn't have happened and that Kuwait would still be an Iraqi province.
This is all supposition, but I 100% disagree. We would've dealt with it...just like we would deal with a similar situation on the Korean Peninsula.
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Just look at the difference between the US handling of Iraq and it's handling of North Korea. You back off of North Korea because you're afraid of them. The most Bush would have done is to put in place a few ineffective sanctions.
Well, that's because "the US" equals the Bush Administration at the current moment.

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Isn't that hindsight, though? Germany of 1936 wasn't the same post-Munich Germany - if FDR and Baldwin could somehow see the future and knew what Hitler was going to become, then I imagine they would have been a lot more confrontational, don't you?
Sure....who's Baldwin by the way? But, Germany was a country who twenty years earlier took on most of the major powers in the world and held their own. Big difference, Cord. Even that being said, I can't blame those for not being really anxious for another war.

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Truman had no authority to let MacArthur loose on China, though - he had no Congressional authority and no UN mandate to do so.
I don't know, Cord...that fact that Chinese troops were coming across the border and killing UN personnel enforcing UN resolutions.....you are more an authority on UN law than me, but I think the bombing of the Chinese bridges could have been legally justified.
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As far as confronting the Soviets over Cuba, well, that would have depended on your assessment of Khrushchev's aggressive tendencies. What if Khruschev perceived American reluctance to "duke it out" as weakness and decided to move into West Berlin, for example? Was West Berlin worth a nuclear war?
There were some who thought war with the Soviets was inevitiable....fight them now (1962) while we have the advantage. There was some logic to this.

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So you see yourself as closer to Baldwin than Churchill?
Churchill, of course. I don't despise war, Cord...shit I make my living via the military....it just has to be the right war, e.g., the gain is worth the cost.
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Last edited by StormanNorman; 05-30-2008 at 02:48 PM.
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  #546 (permalink)  
Old 05-30-2008, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Cordelier View Post
Judith Miller wasn't Vice President of Iraq, though. Yes or no, George... would you have been willing to take his word for it?
>>>I would have taken his word for as long as it took to investigate. And I wouldn't have been stampeded by shrieking neocons like young Ms. Miller.
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  #547 (permalink)  
Old 05-30-2008, 02:43 PM
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Originally Posted by areyoushittin'me? View Post
Perhaps but then again a study of history might have given us a clue...I stated as such prior to our going in.
Doesn't history also show that aggressive dictators have to be confronted?

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Originally Posted by areyoushittin'me? View Post
On that we disagree...I think Bush Sr. knew full well that Saddam would do that.
I don't know about that - he seemed as surprised as anyone when it happened.

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Originally Posted by areyoushittin'me? View Post
It is possible that by giving Blix the "months" he suggested would resolve the intelligence issue...as I've said before...we should have made that an issue and after a couple to few more months we would have then been much more justified in drawing a line in the sand...an argument could have been made at that point and if France/Germany/Russia didn't get on board...screw 'em.

I know...now comes the argument that Saddam had umteen years and even more resolutions, yada yada yada...BUT...what had changed was that inspections had recently resumed...what was the hurry...hell, the region has been a mess since before the time of Christ...no "goggles" required to see that.
What if Blix came out with an inconclusive report, though? What if he said something like, "Well, we can't prove that Iraq destroyed it's WMD's, but since we haven't been able to find any well, I have to assume they're not there." Wouldn't France and Russia have latched onto that as an excuse for backing off on Iraq? What would you have done then?
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  #548 (permalink)  
Old 05-30-2008, 02:48 PM
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Facts on Who Benefits From Keeping Saddam Hussein In Power

France controls over 22.5 percent of Iraq's imports.[1] French total trade with Iraq under the oil-for-food program is the third largest, totaling $3.1 billion since 1996, according to the United Nations.[2]
In 2001 France became Iraq's largest European trading partner. Roughly 60 French companies did an estimated $1.5 billion in trade with Baghdad in 2001 under the U.N. oil-for-food program.[3]
France's largest oil company, Total Fina Elf, has negotiated extensive oil contracts to develop the Majnoon and Nahr Umar oil fields in southern Iraq. Both the Majnoon and Nahr Umar fields are estimated to contain as much as 25 percent of the country's oil reserves. The two fields purportedly contain an estimated 26 billion barrels of oil.[4] In 2002, the non-war price per barrel of oil was $25. Based on that average these two fields have the potential to provide a gross return near $650 billion.


Germany
Direct trade between Germany and Iraq amounts to about $350 million annually, and another $1 billion is reportedly sold through third parties.[10]
It has recently been reported that Saddam Hussein has ordered Iraqi domestic businesses to show preference to German companies as a reward for Germany's "firm positive stand in rejecting the launching of a military attack against Iraq." It was also reported that over 101 German companies were present at the Baghdad Annual exposition.[11]
During the 35th Annual Baghdad International Fair in November 2002, a German company signed a contract for $80 million for 5,000 cars and spare parts.[12]
In 2002, DaimlerChrysler was awarded over $13 million in contracts for German trucks and spare parts.[13]
Germany is owed billions by Iraq in foreign debt generated during the 1980's.[14]


Russia
Russia controls roughly 5.8 percent of Iraq's annual imports.[16] Under the U.N. oil-for-food program, Russia's total trade with Iraq was somewhere between $530 million and $1 billion for the six months ending in December of 2001.[17]
According to the Russian Ambassador to Iraq, Vladimir Titorenko, new contracts worth another $200 million under the U.N. oil-for-food program are to be signed over the next three months.[18]
Russia's LUKoil negotiated a $4 billion, 23-year contract in 1997 to rehabilitate the 15 billion-barrel West Qurna field in southern Iraq. Work on the oil field was expected to commence upon cancellation of U.N. sanctions on Iraq. The deal is currently on hold.[19]
In October 2001, Salvneft, a Russian–Belarus company, negotiated a $52 million service contract to drill at the Tuba field in Southern Iraq.[20]


Facts on Who Benefits From Keeping Saddam Hussein In Power

France, Germany, and Russia were NEVER going to "go along", there was too much involved.
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  #549 (permalink)  
Old 05-30-2008, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Cordelier View Post
?

So it's a difficult call... is it better to be wise or to be brave? What do you think?

Both. Use the good will after 9/11 to create a coalition based on the already existing no fly zones & send in troops to occupy & strangle Saddam from the North & South.

The real problems with that were this:

It would have divided up the spoils of Iraq eventually with France & Germany.
It would most likely have accelerated the shift to the Euro as a currency.
It would have ultimately required the U.S. to further legitimize the role of the U.N.
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  #550 (permalink)  
Old 05-30-2008, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Cordelier View Post
Doesn't history also show that aggressive dictators have to be confronted?
Thus the renewed inspections...why do you think that when we went into Iraq in '91 our support from countries in the region was contingent on our agreement not to take out Saddam? Do you really not understand that in a strange perverted sort of way, they wanted him to remain in power? Looking at how we have empowered the Shia and the fact that the surrounding countries are predominately Sunni should provide you with a bit of a clue.

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Originally Posted by Cordelier View Post
I don't know about that - he seemed as surprised as anyone when it happened.
We shall have to agree to disagree but if you would care to share some of your behind the scenes knowledge from your days in the White House at that time, I'd love to hear about it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cordelier View Post
What if Blix came out with an inconclusive report, though? What if he said something like, "Well, we can't prove that Iraq destroyed it's WMD's, but since we haven't been able to find any well, I have to assume they're not there." Wouldn't France and Russia have latched onto that as an excuse for backing off on Iraq? What would you have done then?
We can come up with plenty of what if's...we should have provided the inspectors with what we "knew", if it turned out to be false at least we would have known that what we "knew" was bogus...quite honestly the fact that Saddam was in violation because his al-Samood II missles had a range of 13 miles further than that allowed did not impress me as an imminent threat to anyone.
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