We've all been witnessing the decrease in violence in Iraq these last few months and the Bush Administration has taken credit for the apparent success of the surge... and yet I can't help but reflect that if I were an insurgent and I wanted the Americans out, what I'd do is to try and pull off a repeat of the 1968 Tet Offensive. I'd ease off on the violence and give the Americans a false sense of security and then spring as vast an attack as I could when it would be timed for maximum effect on the American political process.

Think about it what effect that would have on US politics if the violence flared up worse than ever just when it seemed to be on the wane. The Republicans are patting themselves on the back for the success of the surge - even some of the more moderate Democratic candidates seem to be acknowledging that the surge has been relatively successful.

But what about if the surge wasn't so successful? What about if Iraq disintegrated into violence a week or so before the New Hampshire primary? It'd turn the whole Presidential race on it's head, wouldn't it? Let's face it... it'd probably kill the chances for a hawkish Republican President, and the more dovish a Democrat you were, the greater the bump you'd receive. It'd kill the McCain, Guiliani and Clinton campaigns... and the General Election would probably come down to Romney or Huckabee vs. Obama, with Obama winning 60% of the vote by promising to end the war by whatever means necessary, a la RFK '68.

So what do you figure? Is the current lull in Iraq due to the surge... or is it just the calm before the storm?

This could very well happen--and regardless of the magnitude--a last gasp effort will be made sometime before the election. It will be called (Operation Insurgents Vote Democrat)

I wouldnt call Benedict (Our troops murdered women and children in cold blood) Murtha a moderate--if he says things are going well--we can conclude were approaching victory rather quickly.

The Tet offensive was a military disaster for the Viet Cong--they took massive casulaties--and their uprising was pushed back in a matter of days (Exceptions include places like Khe Sanh) It did however prove to be a great political sucess--as the liberals and liberal media in the US gave the Viet Cong more help and aid than they could have ever asked for.

Operation Insurgents Vote Democrat could happen--and if it does--regardless of the magnitude--the libs will run wild with it in another pathetic attempt of playing politics with the lives of our troops.

Who wants us out of Iraq NOW!

Osama--Obama--Hitlary--Al Queada--Every democrat presidential candidate--The entire democrat party (except Leiberman)--libs in gerneal--insurgents--Nancy hug-it-out Pelosi--Iran--Zawahiri--Harry the smear Reid--Sadam (from hell)--as well as liberals/socialists/communists and freedom opressors world-wide.

DEMOCRATS ARE INVESTED IN DEFEAT!

Youd like that wouldnt you. Just a reminder, the tet offensive failed miserably. After 5 years, I think the insurgents know that if they fight us head to head, their bodies would be piled pretty damn high, so no, thats not gonna happen.

Youre damn right the Bush administration is taking credit for it, Bush is the one who ordered it!

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I don't know, Cordelier...it's hard to say. I'm pretty sure that the violence will pick up somewhat in January...that has been the statistical trend for the past 4 years (November/December = Ramadan). How much it will pick up is hard to say. If the violence increases by orders of magnitude (back to 2006 levels or higher), I think it will have a devastating affect on the American public's psyche....very similar to the Tet Offensive back in 1968. It all comes down to how much we are willing to pay for "victory." After the Tet Offensive, people began seeing the cost as just too high; my guess is that would happen in Iraq as well if the violence significantly increased.

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I think you're missing the point, Badmutha... The US media didn't lose the war in Vietnam - you lost because the other side just wanted it more. The Viet Cong knew they were going to take a beating in Tet - and yet they did it anyway... why? Because they were fighting for their country - they were fighting for the very essence of their existance and they were willing to lay down their lives for it. What were the Americans fighting for? They were fighting so that they could stay alive long enough to run out the clock on their tour and get back to the world. It's not the dog in the fight, it's the fight in the dog, Badmutha.

And it's the same in Iraq - Iraq is their country and they're willing to fight and die for what they believe in... what other alternative do they have? Where else are they going to go? If you were in their place, would you be content to sit back and have your country's future dictated to you by foreigners?

No I wouldn't, Stryker - what I'd like is for the Iraqis to see past their differences and learn to live together in peace... and I just don't see that happening so long as the US is still there and still serving as a focal point on which the tensions continue to simmer. Iraq isn't your country - they don't want you there... they want to run their country the way they want it run...so why are you still there?

You know what I think of the surge? Bush saw this pot of boiling water on the stove, so he put a big 'ol cast-iron lid on it. Voila! Problem solved... you can't see the water boiling anymore.

Ramadan was September/October this year, Storman. I agree with you, though... if the violence flares back up again, the American people are going to have to sit back and do their own cost-benefit analysis of the war and decide if it's worth what it's costing in blood and costing in money. I don't think it is, and I can't see how the vast majority of Americans will continue to think it is either.

Hi Cordelier,

I think the vast majority of Americans were certainly feeling that way during 2006 as the violence was continuing to spiral upwards. Since there has been some decline in violence, the pressure on the Administration has decreased somewhat.

The surge and Petreaus's more aggressive counter-insurgency tactics has curtailed the violence levels....and that is a good thing, no doubt. However, as you alluded to in your post to Stryker, the real question is....will it eventually lead to necessary fundamental changes in Iraqi society and solve the current political problems. In other words, will we be able to shape the Iraqis' fundamental attitudes and behaviors in a positive lasting way....or are we just kicking the can down the road? That's hard to say. Certainly, drawing down the violence was an absolutely necessary precursor, but will that be enough??

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There are those in this country who have a hard time admitting this....I call it the WWII mentality or the John Wayne mentality....we can't lose....and if we do "lose," there's got to be a scapegoat. And for the more conservative individuals....it's usually those dreaded "liberals" and their ally the "liberal media." It's certainly convenient....however, as you pointed out, dead wrong.

We fell into Vietnam....because of the Domino Theory and our fear of communist world-wide domination. And we found ourselves in a much tougher fight against a surprisingly tough and determined enemy. As the fatality numbers and violence continued to grow, people began to naturally question whether or not it was worth our effort. And there is moral justification for this....after all, it's not a game of football.

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Failed miserbaly? You beter go back to highschool boy. Tet offensive got broke moral and the country no longer suported the war in anything near a majority. Cronkite said the war was lost. Was he a hippy libieral too...you dumbshit.

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Everything you just said is total bullshit

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