Quote:
Originally Posted by Smitty0311
The years will alway graduly get worse untill the surge was implimented. After all the support for the war was still falling. Once the enemy has boosted his support in opposing the USA it usually doesent go away much! The Later part of the year is also ramadan but you can tell the difference between that and the political aspect by the huge surge of enemy activity! Notice after the Petraeus report was given and democrats started to agree about the Anbar Provence the violence went down! When America backs the mission it demoralizes the enemy! When America calls for a pullout the enemy is inspired to continue!
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There is some logic to your statement in bold...it makes sense....at least, for the insurgents that follow American politics....they want us to leave. So, I imagine there is truth to what you are saying....the question is how much truth. And again, Smitty, there are some wierd trends in that data you gave me....namely, the increase in attacks from the start of each year to the end of each year and, of course, the situation getting worse from year to the next.
You want to claim that it is mainly driven by what happens here at the home front, e.g., support for the war. I don't think I buy that, Smitty. The elections may have
some impact....but, the year-to-year trends I see don't suggest a large impact. Why is the violence gotten worse year by year? Again, I'm not sure you can correlate that with growing anti-war sentiment here in the US. Could there be other more significant factors? I remember Cat discussing Vietnam and claiming that the situation in Nam got worse and worse long before the public began turning against the war there.
Why has the violence dropped in 2007? I think in part because of Patreaus....and his counter-insurgency ideas. However, there is another factor mention by Petreaus and others....Iraq has become more and more segregated. Neighborhoods in Baghdad that used to be intermingled are not very segregated....so, you possibly have out of sight...out of mind going on as well. Is that a good thing, a bad thing, or both??