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07-25-2006, 07:23 PM
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Political Junkie
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 465
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I hope you all realize that Hezbollah is coming off on top here. That Israel is playing into Nasrallah's hand. That Hezbollah expected military retaliation as a probable Israeli response. That they are becoming more popular not only in Lebanon but in the entire Arab world, and that, as with all guerilla/militia movements, an added amount of popularity makes it more legitimate and relevant in Lebanon today : in this way, Israel's actions are ensuring Hezbollah's survival.
Of course, this could change if Israel decided to launch a major ground offensive, which seems very unlikely. But it would be a change for the worse: Hezbollah could be destroyed, but a larger resistance movement would appear to fight Israel, and this movement would no doubt be united, as the Lebanese have very bad memories of their civil war. An Israeli invasion would only breed more hatred, and would prolonge the Mideast conflict.
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07-26-2006, 07:47 AM
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Political Mastermind
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Fort Lewis, WA
Posts: 2,302
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Cizungu
I agree, the prisoner swap route would only encourage Hezbollah...
But Israel had various courses of action, limiting the options to BLOW SHIT UP or APPEASE A LA CHAMBERLAIN is dishonest. They could have adressed an ultimatum. They could have threatened the UN : have your international force get off of its ass and effectively disarm Hezbollah, or we attack... there were options. Of course, most of these more peaceful approaches required that Israel swallow its immense pride for a moment. But it was so much easier for Olmert, who appears weak to many Israelis, to beat his chest and attack.
The simple fact is: Hezbollah attacked the Israelis because it knew that Israel would respond either by another prisoner exchange (which was highly unlikely) or by massive bombings and/or ground assault. Nasrallah would no doubt have preferred a prisoner swap, but he knew that, whatever the Israeli response, Hezbollah would become once again relevant, would become more popular, and thus more legitimate, and stronger. And that's the only thing that counts.
Military actions have never been a solution in the Mideast. If they were, the whole crisis would have ended years ago.
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Yes, more of those tersly worded UN letters....
"Cease all hostilities, or we shall be very angry with you!! We are going to give you, lets say, another six months to comply!! If not, you will definately feel the wrath of our extremely pissed off Security Counsel letter writers, as we will send you another letter, this one even more harsh than the previous!!"
__________________
"A committee is a group of people who individually can do nothing but together can decide that nothing can be done."
Fred Allen
"A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul."
George Bernard Shaw
"Politics is the art of choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable."
John Galbraith
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07-26-2006, 10:03 AM
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Political Junkie
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 465
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gdfather02
Yes, more of those tersly worded UN letters....
"Cease all hostilities, or we shall be very angry with you!! We are going to give you, lets say, another six months to comply!! If not, you will definately feel the wrath of our extremely pissed off Security Counsel letter writers, as we will send you another letter, this one even more harsh than the previous!!"
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Your repeating your point about a weak UN. I won't deny the UN force that was deployed in Lebanon was useless. But, as I already stated above, Israel could easily have pushed for stronger action without intervening as quickly as it did. It is becoming more and more apparent that Israel wanted to attack Hezbollah and Lebanon for a long time, and took this occasion to strike, without any long-term thinking.
But you continue picturing the situation in black and white, where the only options for Israel were either ATTACK or COWARDLY APPEASE, and that's dishonest.
And, BTW, Israel is not a pure white "victim" here. It is illegally occupying the Shebaa farms area in Southern Lebanon. Another illegal occupation that breeds hate among the Shiites and which Hezbollah can use to justify its terrorist actions...
Military action never gets rid of terrorism. It can push it back, it can temporarily neutralize it, but, in the long run, it does nothing. And Israel, after more than twenty years, hasn't understood that yet. Israel doesn't care about drying up Hezbollah's popularity, which would require that they put an end to their paranoid expansionist policies.
The only way to put an end to terrorism and popular resistance is to "win the hearts and minds" of populations which support, or tolerate, armed groups, (an oft repeated phrase!), and use police forces and limited military operations, but that is something Israel has almost always been incapable of doing.
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07-26-2006, 11:54 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 10,963
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Still Dizzy
Do you often hear voices????????????????????
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No, I work at Global Crossing.
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07-26-2006, 02:58 PM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 10,963
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gdfather02
WTF!! Why is this thread even here?? If she wasn't there, there would be screams for "why isn't the Bush administration engaged??" Make up your minds folks....
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Condi has no role to play and 'being there' doesn't mean the Bushies are engaged. She might as well go see "Pirates II".
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05-11-2008, 12:21 PM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 7,109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spitty
she is posing for pictures, smile pretty, she is articulate.....but accomplishing what? She is not even meeting with the "elected" leadership of Palestine. Friends this is scripted theatrics. Why are we meddling in Arad v. Jew affairs? It is not our fight. I say we stay out and focus on the Iraqi genocide. All of our media is concentrating on the Israel agression and not on the Iraqi-nam. Why?
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Have you got a lot to learn, old sport.
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05-11-2008, 12:23 PM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 7,109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheYellowDog
Because it is our fight, also. If Israel were to loose, the radical Islamist could go onto their next target. Do you know who that is? The West.
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Explain how you came to that conclusion if you will, please. If Israel didn't exist any longer, the West (meaning America) would not be endangered because Israel is the reason the Muslims hate us.
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05-11-2008, 12:31 PM
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Political Guru
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: White House Vault
Posts: 656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheYellowDog
Because it is our fight, also. If Israel were to loose, the radical Islamist could go onto their next target. Do you know who that is? The West.
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The wouldn't be fighting us if we didn't have the biggest welfare queen in the world: Israel.
More Chinese died in their revolutions than Jews died in Germany (heck, in hundreds of years), but you don't see the USA giving every man, woman and child in China about 17k a year, either.
Pure victimology.
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05-11-2008, 12:52 PM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: canada
Posts: 8,136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lasher
Explain how you came to that conclusion if you will, please. If Israel didn't exist any longer, the West (meaning America) would not be endangered because Israel is the reason the Muslims hate us.
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Israel is a cancer ...Its presence in the M.E. is the cause of all the problems .
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05-11-2008, 12:57 PM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 14,101
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There was actually a good discussion going on here people.
Try to avoid foaming at the mouth, so it may proceed.
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