Do you think the political disturbances in France of recent (the CPU, and the crise des banlieu) will prevent the UMP from winning next year, and allow a socialist victory.

Do you think the presidential contest will be Royal verses Sarkozy? If so who would win?

it looks like sarkozy is well popular still. i think royal is a bit radical for the french, but she does seem popular. so its early 2 say who would win, but i reckon it will be the ump, they have been doing well in french politics.

i think its a definate that it will be royal v sarkozy, because they are always covered by the french media, and seem to be topping les sondages. Est-ce que tu peut parler le francais? Si oui, il y a un bon article dans le monde, mais je ne sais pas si tu peut traduire?

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,...-816991,0.html

Some still believe that Chirac will stand for re-election, but I find this rather remote. He is ageing, but more importantly, this has not been a popular term for him, and the scandals have tainted him. I would agree with your assessment of Sarko, he is charismatic, innovative, and he seems to want to break with the norm. Thus, I think he will be popular among the French, and with his hard-line policies he can win back some of the less comfortable National Front supporters.

Whereas, the left is still much divided, and I doubt the PS can win the first round. However, I think the UMP will gain FN votes, and thus they will not make it through to the second round. I am unsure who would win the second round. He remains highly popular, especially with the polls suggesting he was the most popular Minister for the Interior ever. The French appeared disillusioned with the Fifth Republic, and I think he will win many over with his controversial nature. That is why I would say that Sarkozy is probably going to be victorious.

Oui, je peux parler le français, mais je n'ai pas les accents dans mon clavier, désole. Cependant, je voudrais écrire en anglais, car si les autres veulent donner leur opinions ils peux. Quand on parle de la politique français, c'est difficile si on ne peut pas utiliser un journal français, alors nous devons donner les articles en français. D’accord ?

although i think the ump are popular enough to win the national assembly, i dont think sarko will win, i think that will be sego - resulting in cohabitation again. the ump should win over fn supporters for parliament, especially as u've said if sarko is leader.

sego will be put forward by the ps because she is topping polls for their candidate, leaving the others trailing way behind. but, i think most wenches and feminists in france will think its about time for a french female president, and she'll win many of them over. she, unlike other french socialists shy away from tough issues such as dilinquent scum, and she may win over some from the ump for this reason. shes not too far left, and so wont lose votes for that reason to the ump, but sarko is ultra-liberal, and a majority in france dont like this, and think its too british, and not french.

it will be a close cut thing but she'll win.that poll gave her 51% to Sarko's 49%!

Consistent polls how Sarkozy as the most popular French politician. If we were to asses their abilities, would you agree that Sarkozy is much more charismatic and innovative than Royal? Sarkozy has a good reputation in government, and clearly can be trusted. Furthermore, Royal seems to be to the right of her party. She cannot win over the long established UMP ground, because those voters (or the UDF voters, the area she appears to be attacking) will side with the UMP, not trusting the long established socialist values of the PS.