Out of interest, what has Stephen Harper's policy been to Quebec since he won the election?

Harper's policy toward Quebec has been pretty much to bend over and pucker up *L* I don't know how many times he's been to Quebec or met with Premier Charest since the election, but he's put a lot more effort there than in any other province, and with good reason - he knows he can never get a parliamentary majority without picking up more seats in Quebec.

The main issue in Quebec is the so-called "fiscal imbalance" - Quebec feels too much money is being kept in Ottawa and not being returned to the provinces... and Harper made a lot of hay during the election about resolving this, but hasn't done all that much about it since he came into office in February. I think if he doesn't resolve the issue before the next election (probably next Spring), he's going to have an uphill climb there with disappointed expectations. But if he does start decentralizing power to the provinces, he could make some inroads with the separatists.

He's also lost a lot of support there during the summer by being too closely identified with the Bush Administration's foreign policy in Lebanon and Afghanistan. Bush is about as popular as Hitler in Quebec. There's a pretty big Lebanese-Canadian community in Quebec that he turned off by coming down so firmly on the side of the Israelis. Where it comes to Afghanistan, I think Quebecers in general are more isolationist when it comes to foreign policy - it's pretty much like pulling teeth to get them to support sending troops overseas for any reason, so as more of our soldiers start coming back in body bags, it affects Quebec public opinion more adversely probably than anywhere else in Canada.

Environmental policy is also big in Quebec, and so Harper's backtracking on Kyoto has damaged his popularity there. However, the government is promosing to come up with a new "Green Plan" in the near future, so I guess it remains to be seen what's contained in that to see if he can recover on that front. I think it'd have to be pretty dramatic to recoup his losses, though.

So, all in all, I'd say Harper has put a lot of effort into improving his situation in Quebec, but hasn't had a whole lot to show for it - he talks the talk but hasn't quite been able to walk the walk there as of yet.

So has the chance for Quebec sessation passed?

Thank you very much Cordelier. Do you think the Conservatives will win in Spring? Or will the Liberals be able to form a government? And what are the current opinion polls like?

I wouldn't say it has passed - it's still a possibility, but with the Supreme Court's decision I cited earlier and with the passage of the Clarity Act in 2000, I'd have to say it's exceedingly unlikely that it'll ever happen.

The only way it could happen is if the Quebec government put a clear referendum question before the people (that has been approved by the Parliament of Canada) and that the people voted with a substantial supermajority to secede. Even if all of that happened, the Constitution of Canada doesn't allow for secessation, so a Constitutional conference of all the Provinces would be convened to amend the Constitution to allow of Quebec's secessation. So there's a lot of high hurdles for separatists to jump through before it could happen.

My pleasure, DC - I don't get much of a chance to talk about Canadian politics on here, so I jump at every opportunity.

I think it's pretty likely the Conservatives will win in the Spring. Our budget revenues are coming in better than expected, so there's plenty of leeway in the next budget for the Government to cut taxes (always a sure-fire way to win votes).

The Liberals are pretty much in disarray right now - they're in the midst of a hard-fought leadership race that won't be resolved until December, their party machinery is almost totally broken down and in major need of a overhaul, and party fundraising has been hit pretty hard from the scandal that helped to bring down the Martin Government... and whatever fundraising efforts that have been done have been for the various leadership candidates. So it's going to be pretty hard for them to get their act together in time for the next election.

On the left, the NDP will probably pick up seats, but they're starting from so far behind that they have no realistic chance of forming the Government.

the last opinion polls I've seen had the Conservatives at 38% (-1% from July), Liberals at 29% (+2%), NDP at 17% (unchanged), Bloc Quebecois at 10% (unchanged), and Greens at 5% (-2%), which still puts it at a Conservative minority. To get a majority, the Conservatives will pretty much have to solidly crack 40%.

As far as Quebec goes, though, for the reasons I cited earlier, Conservative support has dropped from 34% shortly after the election in February to 22% now.... so it's going to be tough for Harper to make up that ground that he'll need to get a majority.

Again, thank you very much. I'll look forward to the election. When Stephen Harper won, the BBC had a page about Canadian electoral history, and I was shocked to discover that the Tories (do Canadians use that phrase for the Conservatives?) had only won two seats.

But, according to that poll, the Liberals don't have a chance to form a government alone. However, is the NDP likely to side with the Liberals and form a coalition?

Yup, we surely do call our Conservatives "Tories" - originally our parties were based on Westminster's - although we have our own twist on the Liberals (they're called "Grits"). The NDP is our version of the Labour party (although they're very much "old Labour")... so much so that it's long been the NDP's ambition to usurp the Liberals as the pre-eminent party on the left the same way Labour knocked the Liberals off their perch in Britain in the 20's.

The 1993 election was a major comedown for the Conservatives - they went from a majority with 151 seats down to 2 seats, but a lot of that was because the party split into three factions - the far-right Reform party, the center-right Progressive Conservatives, and the Quebec wing essentially became the Bloc Québécois. So this enabled the Liberals to hold unchallenged majorities through the 1990's.

Unfortunately for the Liberals, however, the long-time Prime Minister (Chrétien) was challenged and forced out by his popular Finance Minister (Martin)... (sound familiar?), which weakened the Liberals and encouraged Reform and the Progressive Conservatives to re-unite the right and forced the Liberals to go from a majority in 2000 to a minority in 2004, and then they finally lost in 2006.

The current standings in the House after the 2006 election are Conservatives: 124, Liberals: 103, Bloc Québécois: 51, and NDP: 29 (plus one Independent), so it's theoretically possible that the Liberals and NDP could unite to form a coalition that'd out-weigh the Conservatives. But the wildcard is the Bloc - they hold the balance of power that could bring down any coalition, and they're the big barrier to any party gaining a majority.

Besides, even if the Liberals and NDP formed a coalition, it'd probably only end up damaging both parties - the "true believers" in the NDP would say that the party was betraying it's core values for the chance at sharing power, while the Liberals would be perceived by the general public as willing to do anything to hold onto power. Also, I would think there'd be a general perception in the country that a Liberal/NDP coalition would lack legitimacy since the Conservatives have a clear lead in seats and were perceived to have "won" the election. So I don't see any future coalition as being in the works unless the Bloc loses the "balance of power" position it now holds, or unless the Conservative seat lead dramatically shrinks.

I really will look forward to that election. I never knew that the Bloc Quebecois split off the Conservatives, I wonder if deep down there is still a tie, and the Bloc Quebecois would form a coalition with the Conservatives. Stephen Harper should try to win them over. Are the Bloc Quebecois (do they have a shorter nickname?) still right wing, and are they similar in outlook to the Conservatives overall?

In your opinion, do the Grits have any good candidates to succeed Graham? I've only heard of Michael Ignatieff, and Gerard Kennedy.

It seems most likely for another Tory government, but what on Earth would they do if there was no majority, and the NDP refused to form a coalition. Perhaps a grand coalition similar to that between the CDU and SPD in Germany. But I presume that would be just as difficult to work as Labour and the Tories forming a joint government.

*L* I'm looking forward to it myself... a friend of mine is going to be running for the Green Party here and I'm going to be managing his campaign, so it should be interesting (in the same way the Charge of the Light Brigade was interesting, I guess ). But he's a good man and he's got some good ideas... and what the hell - if by some miracle we can get him elected, he'll be the first Green MP and he'll shake things up in Ottawa... let's put it this way - he's his own shade of green *L*. Besides, our current Conservative MP is just pretty much a seat warmer - he deserves to get the boot.

About the Bloc, originally they were Conservatives, but they were probably the most leftist branch of the party - they're far more liberal on social issues (gay marriage, environment, etc.) than the Conservatives, but there is some common ground where it comes to devolving power to the provinces. Since they split off in the late 80's, they've made their own identity, so I don't think there's much of a chance for reconciliation there. The Bloc are totally devoted to Quebec interests and are committed separatists... so they tend to pretty much go their own way. If the Conservatives get too closely tied to them, they run the real risk of being perceived to be jeopardizing Canadian unity in the rest of the country. I don't think the Bloc would want closer relations anyway - the only way the Conservatives can expand enough to win a majority is get a breakthrough in Quebec and the only way to do that is to win over Bloc voters. So they work together from time to time... but warily.

Graham is only really the interim leader of the Liberal party - he's just a caretaker until the new leader is chosen. Ignatieff is the front-runner and an impressive intellectual, but he lacks political experience and has a tendency to make stupid mistakes. His closest rival is Bob Rae, the former NDP Premier of Ontario... Rae has experience, but his tenure as premier was pretty much judged to be a failure, so he would have a hard time getting support in his own province. Gerald Kennedy is a former Ontario provincial minister, but he doesn't have any experience in Federal politics, and is pretty much an unknown outside of Ontario.

My favorite candidate is Stéphane Dion from Quebec - he was in Chrétien's and Martin's cabinets, so he's got experience and he's a political survivor (when Martin came into office, he purged pretty much all of Chrétien's people, but Dion managed to hang on). Dion's weaknesses are that he sometimes struggles with English and he's having a hard time finding the contributions to keep his campaign competitive. But, on the other hand, I think he could make some real gains and take back some of the ground the Liberals have lost in Quebec. Should be interesting... it's definitely far from being decided just yet.

If we keep electing minority governments and nobody joins a coalition, I guess we'll just keep on having elections every two years or so until one party or another has a breakthrough and manages to win a majority. Keeps things interesting. It's not imperative that we have a coalition for us - the Government can operate with a parliamentary minority... it just has to watch it's step. Keeps the Whip's offices busy.