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05-11-2008, 08:38 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Washington state
Posts: 3,342
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flyhigher
If she could get a 90% percent win in WV, and then a 80% percent win in Kentucky, she would be ahead in the popular vote...
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90% in WV, 80% in Ken.? You really are funny in a childish naive sort of way. Is that like your prediction of a 35% win in Pa? Lets look at the most recent polls: In WV the last 2 polls taken were ARG and Rasmussen giving Clinton leads of 66%-23% and 56%-27% respectively. In Ken. the most recent poll is from SUSA and it shows Clinton with a 62%-28% lead. Good states for Clinton yes, but nowhere near 80 or 90%.
According to RCP Hillary currently trails in the popular vote by 736,579. Even if she receives 70% of the vote in both WV and Ken., because they are small states, Clinton will only pick up approxamitely 150,000 votes net in each state, leaving her still well behind in the popular vote. You are also forgetting Ore. which votes the same day (5-20) as Ken. and considering the last weeks Rasmussen poll had Obama up there 51%-39%, much of her Ken. gains will be offset there.
I know it must be rough for you accepting the death of your queen, but accept it, all the pundits do, this race is over. Clinton has no mathematical chance which is why the superdelegates have been flocking to Obama's side.
Last edited by Upton; 05-11-2008 at 08:42 AM.
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05-11-2008, 08:46 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,777
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton
90% in WV, 80% in Ken.? You really are funny in a childish naive sort of way. Is that like your prediction of a 35% win in Pa? Lets look at the most recent polls: In WV the last 2 polls taken were ARG and Rasmussen giving Clinton leads of 66%-23% and 56%-27% respectively. In Ken. the most recent poll is from SUSA and it shows Clinton with a 62%-28% lead. Good states for Clinton yes, but nowhere near 80 or 90%.
According to RCP Hillary currently trails in the popular vote by 736,579. Even if she receives 70% of the vote in both WV and Ken., because they are small states, Clinton will only pick up approxamitely 150,000 votes net in each state, leaving her still well behind in the popular vote. You are also forgetting Ore. which votes the same day (5-20) as Ken. and considering the last weeks Rasmussen poll had Obama up there 51%-39%, much of her Ken. will be offset there.
I know it must be rough for you accepting the death of your queen, but accept it, all the pundits do, this race is over. Clinton has no mathematical chance which is why the superdelegates have been flocking to Obama's side.
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I think your math is a little fuzzy, Upton... Let's just see what happens in these two states...
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05-11-2008, 08:48 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Washington state
Posts: 3,342
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flyhigher
I think your math is a little fuzzy, Upton... Let's just see what happens in these two states...
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Don't just make a statement without backing it up, point out where my math is fuzzy.
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05-11-2008, 08:58 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,777
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton
Don't just make a statement without backing it up, point out where my math is fuzzy.
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If Clinton wins by a margin of 60 to 70 points, she will pick up a hell of a lot more than 156,000... This along with Florida and Michigan will put her in the lead...
Upton, I know what you are thinking... Obama can't be beat... He's got the Super Delegates flocking to his side... He has a lot of money... He has came out of the Rev. Wright racism remarks smelling like a rose... Truly black prophet material, Upton, wouldn't you say?
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05-11-2008, 09:17 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Washington state
Posts: 3,342
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flyhigher
If Clinton wins by a margin of 60 to 70 points, she will pick up a hell of a lot more than 156,000... This along with Florida and Michigan will put her in the lead...
Upton, I know what you are thinking... Obama can't be beat... He's got the Super Delegates flocking to his side... He has a lot of money... He has came out of the Rev. Wright racism remarks smelling like a rose... Truly black prophet material, Upton, wouldn't you say?
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First of all, I said Clinton will pick up approximately 150,000 net in EACH state, meaning a net gain of 300,000. Again, a portion of that will be offset by Obama's gains in Ore. Second, she will never win by 60-70%, keeping in mind the polls I cited, she may receive 70% of the vote in WV, but that leaves the other 30% for Obama..that's a 40% win.
As for Mi and Fla, it has not been worked out how they will be seated or counted. The only way Clinton can even come close to taking the popular vote lead is if the DNC were to give her all the 328,309 votes she got in Mi and give Obama 0 since he wasn't on the ballot. I think even you know that's never going to happen, particularly since Obama, in Mi, asked his supporters to vote "uncommitted" which received 40% of the vote. Any resolution of the Mi problem will take that into account.
Look Fly, this race is over. Only disgruntled, disillusioned, and delusional Clinton supporters think otherwise. Don't you think it's time you got on the Obama bandwagon? We are heading all the way to the White House.
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05-11-2008, 09:23 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,777
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton
First of all, I said Clinton will pick up approximately 150,000 net in EACH state, meaning a net gain of 300,000. Again, a portion of that will be offset by Obama's gains in Ore. Second, she will never win by 60-70%, keeping in mind the polls I cited, she may receive 70% of the vote in WV, but that leaves the other 30% for Obama..that's a 40% win.
As for Mi and Fla, it has not been worked out how they will be seated or counted. The only way Clinton can even come close to taking the popular vote lead is if the DNC were to give her all the 328,309 votes she got in Mi and give Obama 0 since he wasn't on the ballot. I think even you know that's never going to happen, particularly since Obama, in Mi, asked his supporters to vote "uncommitted" which received 40% of the vote. Any resolution of the Mi problem will take that into account.
Look Fly, this race is over. Only disgruntled, disillusioned, and delusional Clinton supporters think otherwise. Don't you think it's time you got on the Obama bandwagon? We are heading all the way to the White House.
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Maybe he is headed for a White House, however, it sits on his Syrian lot in Chicago...
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05-11-2008, 09:24 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 3,549
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What does any of it matter? Leads or not, when the smoke clears, you are still talking about a piece of human garbage standing there. You cant change what Clinton and Obamma actually are by just voting for them. One of them is a radical lunatic, and the other cant stop dealing in deception. Clinton...Obamma....what is the difference? When the Sun rises tomorrow, you are still talking about pieces of shit. If voted into public office, you are still talking about pieces of shit. Both represent the communisti-socialisiti-demolibian-faggotinian menace that is threatening to destroy this Nation.
Last edited by Razzputin; 05-11-2008 at 09:26 AM.
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05-11-2008, 09:35 AM
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Political Guru
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: White House Vault
Posts: 656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton
90% in WV, 80% in Ken.?
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Don't know about KY, but the WV is going to be in record double digits. They're seriously trying for 90%.
Think about it. Dems can't even get 60% without getting the GOP vote.
That's what's v-e-r-y dangerous to the GOP, and why Fox News and even the GOP are playing nicey-nicey with Hillary. If they alienate her, more than WV will turn blue.
FL may turn red over the whole delegate fiasco, but other states are prime to switch. Not because of Obama, but because of Hillary.
That kitchen sink approach, also hit the right message for a huge swath of America that even the GOP abandoned -- especially that rural vote. The same rural vote that gave the GOP the South.
Start shaking in those boots, as a real shakeup not seen since 1980 can happen now.
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05-11-2008, 09:41 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Washington state
Posts: 3,342
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisXP
Don't know about KY, but the WV is going to be in record double digits. They're seriously trying for 90%.
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Check it out recent polls of WV. ARG-Clinton leads 66%-23%, Rasmussen Clinton 56%-27%. To suggest Clinton is going to receive 90% of the vote not only goes against the polls, but it makes me question both the sanity and the intelligence of one making such a claim.
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05-11-2008, 09:45 AM
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Political Guru
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: White House Vault
Posts: 656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Razzputin
You cant change what Clinton and Obamma actually are by just voting for them.
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Doesn't matter who they are, as much as who they'll represent.
Hillary is getting votes right from under the GOP. The GOP that isn't addressing their needs, and likes Hillary's message. McInsane is more interested in warfare, than welfare, and in the end welfare ALWAYS trumps warfare (especially in this day and age).
Try grabbing those iPods out of the kids hands and telling them about sacrifices. It's like going to Jeremiah Wright's "church" and telling them the facts about race relations.
Naw, the public wants their trinkets this round. No trinkets, no presidency.
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