Quote:
Originally Posted by wvpeach
It will be a lot more than that. I expect this to cost at least a trillion and a half and that won't include a lot of little expenses they won't bother to report on the deal.
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Are you saying that apparent loss in market value of all the houses plus the actual dollar losses will be a trillion and a half, or that the losses on the mortgages foreclosed alone will be a trillion and a half, or that the way the bonds are disposed of will result in the taxpayers taking a trillion and a half hit which is translated into a trillion dollar profit by those who buy the bonds and hold them until they mature with only moderate actual losses and some significant workout costs?
The problem with the claims about losses in cases like this has to do with the definition of "value." In the past few weeks we have a good example of the problem, when a five year old news report was mistakenly listed as breaking news and people reacted to the news of that old bankruptcy by selling the stock at high enough rates to drive the price of the stock down by 90%. I have no idea what the true value of the stock was before hand, but clearly 10% of that value was also incorrect. So, to say that the losses to stockholders that day was 90% of the value of all the stock held is false. Likewise, when the following day the price increased by a factor of 7 or 8, one can't really say that the value of the company increased by 800%.
One might talk of the money lost by speculators who were reacting to information without context and thus without basis in fact. Those who didn't act on the information lost nothing. The airline lost nothing beyond the
PR time and cost of responding to the information, which while it might be a fairly high expense for an individual, or even a corporation, is small in relation to the airline's operating expenses.
The dot.com bubble bursting it claimed to have resulted in a loss of $5 trillion, but to make that claim, you must also say that in the prior few months the stockholders gained $5 trillion, and in both cases there was no underlying change in the value of the corporations that the stocks provided a stake in. We would be better to say that in a span of months, people gained $5 trillion in unjustified wealth, which they justifiably lost in a few months. The only ones who gained and lost money were smart and stupid speculators, which proves that speculators are not as useful as claimed in making free markets work better to establish the true value of things traded in the market.
We have clearly had a decade of lots of trading based on information that was as grounded in reality as the news story posted as breaking news five years after the fact. Kevin Phillips argues that this has been the case going back at least a quarter century.
As hindsight is sometimes more perfect than looking to the front, side, up, and down, I put the decision point for the US at July 15th, 1979. Reagan put to the American people the vision of easy living based on redirecting our focus from society to our personal lives, arguing that by focusing on our own personal satisfaction and not some wider national, global, or societal satisfaction, we will more fully increase all. That if everyone seeks to maximize their own satisfaction in the present, each individual will be better off, and thus everyone will be better off.
Again, that is an information problem. The implicit assumption of Reagan is that the information about our personal situation is an accurate reflection of the reality for all. And then a major focus is placed on defining the information that is used to measure personal satisfaction, and this then determine what needs to be done to improve our own satisfaction that in turn dictates that the satisfaction of society is dictated by that action.
I seems to me that we have a fairly solid block of society from 1980 to 2005 that focused on a few bits of information which glued them together. One was that they feel more satisfied knowing that their taxes have been cut, because they have been told their taxes have been cut. It isn't clear that many people actually spent much time determining if their taxes really had been cut. Others probably figured that while some people claimed they were better off from tax cuts, without having the data, they wouldn't quite admit that they weren't, but they would call for more tax cuts so that the benefits of tax cuts are increased. And maybe one specific tax was reduced enough to matter, but as a consequence, five other taxes were increased, the latter wasn't connected to the first, nor was the perhaps greater inefficiency of the new taxes wasn't measured.
And clearly the one thing that clearly isn't noted is the tax increases that will be paid by future generations either in actual taxes or in inflation or poorer natural and built capital.
So, the matter of value and cost are tricky. If $1000 in tax cuts per person this year translate into $2000 in tax increases for your grand children in 50 years, (discounted to present value) how much value does that tax cut really have? It actually can make sense if that $1000 is invested in ways that produces in 50 years added revenue of $2000 in 50 years, a break even case, or $5000 in 50 years, a very good investment.
Carter was in a sense expressing the confidence, that might not be justified, that a $1000 tax increase today would produce a $5000 increase in income in 50 years. Reagan was suggesting that a $1000 tax cut today is a $1000 more for you today and that is sufficient justification for the $1000 tax cut today.
Both arguments can be questioned. It is clear that Reagan and those who followed him were unwilling to question their argument.
And so, slowly but surely the debt has risen and risen, little by little, the drip drip drip into the closed tank were we lazily float on a raft in comfort. We are seeing some fall off their rafts and because the top of the tank is too close, they can't get back on. Those lucky enough or with the foresight to get in the very middle of the raft are saying, "hey, its their fault the fell off the raft, let them drown if they can't claw themselves back on the raft" ignoring what is logically ahead for them.