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09-16-2008, 09:01 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Aug 2006
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In Defense Of Markets
Section: Editorials > Printer-Friendly Version
In Defense of Markets
Editorial of The New York Sun | September 16, 2008
In Defense of Markets - September 16, 2008 - The New York Sun
As the crisis on Wall Street tempts the politicians, someone needs to put in a word for free markets. Senator Obama is rushing to blame the Bush administration and New Yorkers and calls for more regulation. "The challenges facing our financial system today are more evidence that too many folks in Washington and on Wall Street weren't minding the store," Mr. Obama said in a statement yesterday.
He added: "Eight years of policies that have shredded consumer protections, loosened oversight and regulation, and encouraged outsized bonuses to CEOs while ignoring middle-class Americans have brought us to the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression."
One might think the Democrat would be answered by the Republican presidential candidate. But Senator McCain is reacting to this opportunity by warning that American workers are being threatened by "the greed and corruption that some engaged in on Wall Street." Added Mr. McCain: "From Washington to Wall Street, the top of our economy is broken. We've seen self-interest, greed, irresponsibility, and corruption undermine these hardworking American people. We're going to put an end to the abuses in Washington and on Wall Street that have resulted in a crisis that we are seeing unfold today."
The Republican went on: "Enough is enough. Enough is enough. We're going to reform the way that Wall Street does business and put an end to the greed that has driven our markets into chaos. We'll stop multimillion-dollar payouts to CEOs that have broken the public trust. And we'll put an end, as I said, to running Wall Street like a casino. We'll make businesses work for the benefit of their shareholders and their employees, and we'll make sure that your savings, IRAs, 401k and pensions are protected." The McCain campaign yesterday released a television commercial promising "tougher rules on Wall Street."
The top Democrat in the Senate, Harold Reid, offered his own assessment: "What we are seeing on Wall Street is the legacy of the Bush-McCain economic policies that have failed this nation. Failing to police lenders and neglecting to protect consumers ushered in the sub-prime crisis that has brought the American economy and Wall Street to their knees." Mr. Reid insisted that "America needs another economic recovery package," and he encouraged Mr. McCain "and other Bush Republicans in Congress to work with Democrats to pass a second economic recovery bill."
Meanwhile, the Republican administration's Treasury secretary, Henry Paulson, a former chief executive of Goldman Sachs, appeared at the White House to announce that in his view, "the root of the problem lies in this housing correction." He said he was "making sure we have plenty of finance in housing," and said, "there is a risk-able chance that the biggest part of this housing correction can be behind us in a number of months."
***
Well, let us just say that there is a risk-able chance that none of these politicians has it right. If not even our leading Republican politicians are going to speak up for markets at this juncture, allow us the opportunity. America got into the subprime housing crisis not only because of errors in the business community but because our governmental authorities sought to encourage greater diversity in lending, because the Congress and our monetary authorities failed to protect the value of the dollar, and because all too few in our political leadership respected the market in the first place.
To where has wisdom fled Washington? Senator Obama's claim that the problem is the policies of the Bush administration doesn't stand the test of reason. The Bush administration was in office and its policies were in effect in 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006, when the American economy, the housing market, and the stock market were doing pretty well.
Senator McCain's claim that the problem is "greed and self-interest"? Both are necessary ingredients to a capitalist economy and elements of the human condition. It's hard to believe that Wall Street bankers were any greedier or more self-interested in the past year or two than they were in the 1980s or the 1990s. As for "corruption," while federal criminal charges have been filed against two Bear Stearns managers, it would be a catastrophic mistake, as a general matter, to criminalize risk-taking that did not work out as planned.
Mr. McCain's promise to "stop multimillion-dollar payouts to CEOs that have broken the public trust" came after the government announced it would not pay the outgoing executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac the money they are owed. That news did not prevent a 500-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. And it has been the market, not any government regulations, that has devastated the net worth of CEOs whose judgment proved unprofitable.
Secretary Paulson's claim that the problem is housing prices and that the solution lies in easy money for mortgages? While the Case-Schiller index of national housing prices is down nearly 20% from its 2006 peak, it is up about 42% from the beginning of the Bush administration. Didn't easy mortgages for overpriced properties contribute to the current problems we do have? What is Mr. Paulson doing offering more of the same as a solution, and what is the logic of making taxpayers the lender? Mr. Reid's recipe of "another economic recovery package"? The first one doesn't seem to have been a panacea. Chances are that what Congress calls an "economic recovery package" would amount to borrowing more money from China to pay for American government spending that American taxpayers would eventually have to pay back.
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The biographer of John Maynard Keynes, Lord Skidelsky, writing in the adjacent columns, reckons the current crisis will mark the end of an era, in which the conservative cycle that some of us call the Age of Reagan and the Age of Thatcher will give way to a new cycle of liberalism. He cites what he calls "cycles of economic fashion" that he reckons are "as old as business cycles." But a headline on The New York Sun — "Wall Street Weathers Worst Drop Since September 11" — put us in mind yesterday of the astounding resilience of the American economy. If only the enduring laws of economics and markets are allowed to work.
The years after 2001 brought an unprecedented boom to Wall Street, New York City, and much of the rest of America. Notwithstanding the costs of a war and a historic hurricane named Katrina, vast wealth was created and widely dispersed. The introduction of Apple's ipod, the public offerings of Google and of the Blackstone Group, the building boom in New York City, the opening of Time Warner Center — all these happened after the September 11 attacks.
Despite yesterday's stock market downturn, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, and the disappearance of Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch as independent financial houses, positive economic signs are to be seen. The dollar has been strengthening, oil prices have been weakening, and American employment and growth are stronger than those of Europe. Even after yesterday's fall, the Dow Jones Index of U.S. financial stocks is actually up about 10% from its mid-July low. Mr. McCain was mocked by the Democrats, but he was actually right when he said the fundamentals of the American economy are strong. They will need to be to withstand the efforts of the current crop of politicians.
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09-16-2008, 09:37 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: mountains of East TN
Posts: 10,592
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Why is "outsized bonuses for CEO's" ever an issue? Why does the amount of money a businessman make anyone's business other than the stockholders? Why is it football players, actors and teleprompter reading news anchors outrageous salaries never discussed?
Inquiring mind want to know.
__________________
Its better to have fussed and crabbed then never to have fussed at all - Lucy
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09-16-2008, 09:42 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Aug 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nathanbforrest45
Why is "outsized bonuses for CEO's" ever an issue? Why does the amount of money a businessman make anyone's business other than the stockholders? Why is it football players, actors and teleprompter reading news anchors outrageous salaries never discussed?
Inquiring mind want to know.
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Athletes aren't driving the economy.
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09-16-2008, 10:19 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: somewhere between a rock and a hard place
Posts: 5,481
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mine are looking great. 14 of 44 still up from the prior monday, and the total sum is only down .92%. time for you to change stratagies ole timer.
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09-16-2008, 10:52 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: somewhere between a rock and a hard place
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now im only down .32% from the prior monday. things couldnt look any better for me. unless i had not diversified. then id be up even more. thats what diversification does sometimes. it sinks yer boat. im surprised Mulp aint singing praises about his CHG.
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09-16-2008, 11:41 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Mar 2006
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Quote:
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The Bush administration was in office and its policies were in effect in 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006, when the American economy, the housing market, and the stock market were doing pretty well.
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>>>Gimme a break with that nonsense. Bush's only mistake is that he mis-timed the meltdown. He really wanted to loot the economy and be out of office at about the same time the Dems took over.
Last edited by George O Well; 09-16-2008 at 11:59 AM.
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09-16-2008, 06:57 PM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: somewhere between a rock and a hard place
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my " basket " of stocks has gone UP by 2.86% since the week ago monday. " the sky is falling! the sky is falling! " chicken little.
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09-16-2008, 08:48 PM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Merrimack, NH
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nathanbforrest45
Why is "outsized bonuses for CEO's" ever an issue? Why does the amount of money a businessman make anyone's business other than the stockholders? Why is it football players, actors and teleprompter reading news anchors outrageous salaries never discussed?
Inquiring mind want to know.
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I guess you think planting fiscal IEDs that will detonate in three to five years is something to be rewarded.
You must love the work of al qaeda in Iraq, of the Saddamists, and the Taliban.
In both cases, the grunts planting the IEDs and the financial IEDs were paid on completion of their placement, and got paid nothing if they refused based on some moral principle like it being wrong to profit from harming others.
And the top level people directing the efforts were rewarded with power, with profit from the illicit and illegal trade that the exuberance concealed, and with a sense of arrogance at being smarter than everyone else.
Of course, the really smart players, the hedgefund managers who were cleverly position to profit on both sides of the debacle, like the Pakistani ISI-military alliance that in playing both sides is able to promote attacks on American forces and allies while collecting cash from the US government.
The key to both ventures is to make sure that the government rules make it easy to keep the real state of affairs and the real flows of information secret from the people who end up stuck with the real risks.
A handful of people figured out that things were really dangerous and that it wasn't possible to trust much of anyone.
Obama pointed out that there were serious problems ahead back in March 2007. But he was merely listening to other smarter people who had first hand experience in such matters. Like Warren Buffett, who interestingly is in the insurance business. This is what Buffett said more than five years ago:
Quote:
Buffett warns on investment 'time bomb' Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction
Warren Buffett
The rapidly growing trade in derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy and most shares are still "too expensive", legendary investor Warren Buffett has warned.
The world's second-richest man made the comments in his famous and plain-spoken "annual letter to shareholders", excerpts of which have been published by Fortune magazine.
The derivatives market has exploded in recent years, with investment banks selling billions of dollars worth of these investments to clients as a way to off-load or manage market risk.
But Mr Buffett argues that such highly complex financial instruments are time bombs and "financial weapons of mass destruction" that could harm not only their buyers and sellers, but the whole economic system.
Contracts devised by 'madmen'
Derivatives are financial instruments that allow investors to speculate on the future price of, for example, commodities or shares - without buying the underlying investment.
Derivatives generate reported earnings that are often wildly overstated and based on estimates whose inaccuracy may not be exposed for many years
Warren Buffett
Derivates like futures, options and swaps were developed to allow investors hedge risks in financial markets - in effect buy insurance against market movements -, but have quickly become a means of investment in their own right.
Outstanding derivatives contracts - excluding those traded on exchanges such as the International Petroleum Exchange - are worth close to $85 trillion, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.
Some derivatives contracts, Mr Buffett says, appear to have been devised by "madmen".
He warns that derivatives can push companies onto a "spiral that can lead to a corporate meltdown", like the demise of the notorious hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998.
Derivatives are like 'hell'
Large amounts of risk have become concentrated in the hands of relatively few derivatives dealers ... which can trigger serious systemic problems
Warren Buffett
Derivatives also pose a dangerous incentive for false accounting, Mr Buffett says.
The profits and losses from derivates deals are booked straight away, even though no actual money changes hand. In many cases the real costs hit companies only many years later.
This can result in nasty accounting errors. Some of them spring from "honest" optimism. But others are the result of "huge-scale fraud", and Mr Buffett points to the US energy market, which relied for most of its deals on derivatives trading and resulted in the collapse of Enron.
Berkshire Hathaway, the investment group led by Mr Buffett, is pulling out of the market, closing down the derivatives trading subsidiary it bought as part of a huge reinsurance company a few years ago.
In his letter Mr Buffett compares the derivatives business to "hell... easy to enter and almost impossible to exit", and predicts that it will take years to unwind the complex deals struck by its subsidiary General Re Securities.
Warren Buffett, dubbed "the sage of Omaha", from where he controls Berkshire Hathaway, is well-known for both his blunt assessments of the markets and the high returns he delivers to shareholders.
This year, he remains cool towards further share investments, despite the sharp correction in stock market values. Mr Buffett says this "dismal fact is testimony to the insanity of valuations reached during The Great Bubble".
Berkshire backyard barbecues
A good friend of Bill Gates, he famously refused to invest in technology shares during the boom years that came to a sudden end in March 2000. As a result, Berkshire was sitting pretty after the technology bubble burst.
In marked contrast to the hubris of former managers at fallen firms like Enron and WorldCom, Mr Buffett is known for his down-to-earth style, summoning shareholders not to glitzy hotels but "Berkshire backyard barbecues" and baseball games in out-of-the-way Omaha, Nebraska.
But his strategy of identifying undervalued companies with good management in unfashionable retail sectors or the insurance industry and investing in them for the long-term has produced spectacular returns.
During the past 37 years, the company has delivered an average annual return of 22.6%. Since 1965 the company's book value has gone up by 194,936%.
However in 2001, the last year for which detailed numbers are available, heavy losses in the insurance industry worldwide resulted in a $3.77bn loss at Berkshire Hathaway - the first loss in the firm's history under Warren Buffett.
Story from BBC NEWS:
BBC NEWS | Business | Buffett warns on investment 'time bomb'
Published: 2003/03/04 13:32:10 GMT
© BBC MMVIII
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Look back at the CEOs of the very financial companies going under today, and you will see that they got huge bonuses for going all in with your capital if you have it invested in stocks and bonds on Wall Street by selling deals that would explode years after they were gone. The CEOs of all those companies were ousted, with their bonuses and golden parachutes paid, about two years ago because as the house of cards could be built up some more to create the appearance of growth and profit. Now the replacement CEOs are seeing these houses of cards collapse.
But hey, taking risk with your assets and making profit from putting you in even greater riskier investments, without you knowing it, by the way, is the beauty of a free market run by greedy capitalists who can keep secret the risks they are laying on others.
And to think that people think Ponzi schemes should be be illegal. Ponzi schemes can be very profitable if everyone just believes in the free market.
Pssst, I can make you a millionaire if you send me $20, and then pass this on to ten of your friends who will send me $15 and send you $5, and then get ten of their friends to send me $10, send $5 to you, and $5 to their friend. It might look like I'm getting paid a lot for very little work, but trust my genious, and look at how much you are going to get for your $20 investment. This is all based on trusting the free market which always works, and thus must always reward me a lot of money because I understand the free market and trust.
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09-17-2008, 12:28 PM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 12,209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jebe
my " basket " of stocks has gone UP by 2.86% since the week ago monday. " the sky is falling! the sky is falling! " chicken little.
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>>>How many $$$trillions have been lost just in the last day and a half? Market down 500 yesterday, 350 so far today.
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09-17-2008, 01:07 PM
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Political Mastermind
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Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nathanbforrest45
Why is "outsized bonuses for CEO's" ever an issue? Why does the amount of money a businessman make anyone's business other than the stockholders? Why is it football players, actors and teleprompter reading news anchors outrageous salaries never discussed?
Inquiring mind want to know.
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Because it reflects a horrible lack of priorities on the parts of these companies.
if you think about it, the only reason CEO salaries are so high, is nto because they do something magical that deserves them, but because it looks good to shareholders that the company can afford such an expensive individual, and it reflects their confidence in him. If they were to pay a CEO half what another industry leader payed, shareholders would wonder what his credentials were and lose confidence.
It's a sad little shell game.
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