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04-25-2008, 03:21 PM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 4,588
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Quote:
Originally Posted by areyoushittin'me?
I understand the point regarding the psychological effects...I just find it rather amusing that you think those effects are important when you see a positive trend yet discount them when they indicate that people think things suck...seems to me if they don't matter then they don't matter...and that's not just "except when they do."
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You misunderstood my point, I don't discount what people do, I discount what they say. What they do is very important, what they say doesn't seem to follow as closely. When I speak of a psychological impact, I mean that something that changes their behavior.
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Speaking of psychological...one of the most recent "political arguments" that comes to mind is the one by McCain when he says he wants to suspend the fed gas tax which is what? Roughly 18 cents a gallon? Hell, gas prices have gone up more than that in the last month or so and then what is going to be the fallout when we (the government) don't have the money to fix the infrastructure?
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Not sure this is "psychological" and I don't think this is a wise thing to do on McCain's part. This is one of those "wanting to appear to be doing something" that I said the rebate might help prevent.
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As to the rebate checks and the psychology of it all...I'd bet 70-80% of the people will have their's spent by weeks end from when they are received...not much longer than a few news cycles...we'll see how much benefit that does to the psyche...my bet is very little.
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Their purchases don't end there, the people they buy from now have money and so forth and so one.
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04-25-2008, 03:22 PM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 4,588
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Quote:
Originally Posted by basharp1
Soho,
Take a look in the mirror.
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Do every morning and night, any reason why you think I should look more?
Particularly to the point I raised?
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04-25-2008, 03:28 PM
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Political Guru
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 825
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TakuanSoho
Hedge funds provide a valuable service in the market. You really need to know what hedge funds do in order to be able to respond to this question.
Such as? Be very careful what you wish for. Nixon tried to fix the previous gas price spike and it damn near finished this country off.
Not disagreeing, however these are the people that you want to interfere even MORE with the economy?
Listen, I understand that a lot of people are hurting, my point isn't that something "shouldn't be done", but rather that "something" should be productive and not damaging. My concern is that people, out of pain, will end up doing something worse, not better for ALL of us.
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Hi Soho,
maybe this could help you understand my frustration these days and how angry I get when the middle class is told we need to hunker down for worse economic news this year. How its our fault ,we are lazy, spend too much ,complain too much, are soft or do not understand the complexities of economics.
Some stats 2001- 2008
1. networth of the wealthiest 1 percent then 186 billion now 816 billion
2. number of billionares top 1 percent then 186 now 415
3. combined wealth of top 1 percent then 816 now 3. 5 trillion
4. bush tax cuts to the top 1 percent 2001 to 2007 546 billion
5. average salary of top 500 C.E.O.s in 2007 15.2 million
6. top 25 hedge fund managers, many are are paying themselves more than the C.E.O.s combined incomes, more than a billion dollars a year.
now compare that to these stats from 2001 to 2008
1.household income then 49,158 now 48,201
2 average cost for 4 year education then 8,400 now 13,000
average debt for college graduate then 12,000 now 21,000
3. grant between the maximum fedral pell grant and the cost of a 4 year degree in a public school then 5282 now 8,746
4. homeowners paying more than half thier income for housing from 2006 13 million
5. households not able to afford the lowest priced home rentals from 2006 2.3 million
6. Americans going hungrey in 2001 according to the usda 2001 31 million now 38.2 million
See Soho, Its disturbing the disparity of the top 1 percent and the rest of us. I know this isn't only the Republicans doing this after all the hedge fund guys give twice as much to the Democratic party. it just shows a growing problem someone needs to adress or we the middle class will fall to its knees and soon disappear. I think thats what big buisnesses wants and its their stratigy so are voices will have no power. They can then contol our lives more than they do now.
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04-25-2008, 03:53 PM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 4,588
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lassie
Hi Soho,
maybe this could help you understand my frustration these days and how angry I get when the middle class is told we need to hunker down for worse economic news this year. How its our fault ,we are lazy, spend too much ,complain too much, are soft or do not understand the complexities of economics.
Some stats 2001- 2008
1. networth of the wealthiest 1 percent then 186 billion now 816 billion
2. number of billionares top 1 percent then 186 now 415
3. combined wealth of top 1 percent then 816 now 3. 5 trillion
4. bush tax cuts to the top 1 percent 2001 to 2007 546 billion
5. average salary of top 500 C.E.O.s in 2007 15.2 million
6. top 25 hedge fund managers, many are are paying themselves more than the C.E.O.s combined incomes, more than a billion dollars a year.
now compare that to these stats from 2001 to 2008
1.household income then 49,158 now 48,201
2 average cost for 4 year education then 8,400 now 13,000
average debt for college graduate then 12,000 now 21,000
3. grant between the maximum fedral pell grant and the cost of a 4 year degree in a public school then 5282 now 8,746
4. homeowners paying more than half thier income for housing from 2006 13 million
5. households not able to afford the lowest priced home rentals from 2006 2.3 million
6. Americans going hungrey in 2001 according to the usda 2001 31 million now 38.2 million
See Soho, Its disturbing the disparity of the top 1 percent and the rest of us. I know this isn't only the Republicans doing this after all the hedge fund guys give twice as much to the Democratic party. it just shows a growing problem someone needs to adress or we the middle class will fall to its knees and soon disappear. I think thats what big buisnesses wants and its their stratigy so are voices will have no power. They can then contol our lives more than they do now.
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Links please. Hard to know what to make of it without knowing the source.
First thing I would point out is that the US population has increased by 7.2% between 2001 and 2008 so merely talking about absolute number gains in the poverty category has to take that into account.
But some points. The cost of higher education has nothing to do with the rich and nothing to do with the government. That is all internal to the people making the decisions. If the government increased pell grants, you would merely have an increase in the cost of education. This is supply and demand and inflation theory all in one.
As for people spending more than they used to on their houses, could it be because they are buying bigger houses?
Incomes could be problematic, however, at the same time you have to look at the average age and life expectency since the earnings curve of a person is generally bell shaped, the type of immigration, as well as the rates used to determine inflation.
As for the wealthy, please provide links. Timing is very important here. 2001 was the stock market crash. Since most wealth was tied into the stock market, this would represent the bottom of wealth, since then the stock market has generally increased, so their wealth would increase. Not sure if this is 1% or 100% of the difference, but it is part of it, and that these two dates were selected, makes me question the hand selection of the data.
And don't forget that most CEO pay is related to stock options, not salary (in part caused by the government taxing corporations for their HCE), and the earning potential of options is MUCH greater than salary. That is what is driving the rapid increase in CEO pay.
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04-25-2008, 04:04 PM
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Political Guru
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 825
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TakuanSoho
Links please. Hard to know what to make of it without knowing the source.
First thing I would point out is that the US population has increased by 7.2% between 2001 and 2008 so merely talking about absolute number gains in the poverty category has to take that into account.
But some points. The cost of higher education has nothing to do with the rich and nothing to do with the government. That is all internal to the people making the decisions. If the government increased pell grants, you would merely have an increase in the cost of education. This is supply and demand and inflation theory all in one.
As for people spending more than they used to on their houses, could it be because they are buying bigger houses?
Incomes could be problematic, however, at the same time you have to look at the average age and life expectency since the earnings curve of a person is generally bell shaped, the type of immigration, as well as the rates used to determine inflation.
As for the wealthy, please provide links. Timing is very important here. 2001 was the stock market crash. Since most wealth was tied into the stock market, this would represent the bottom of wealth, since then the stock market has generally increased, so their wealth would increase. Not sure if this is 1% or 100% of the difference, but it is part of it, and that these two dates were selected, makes me question the hand selection of the data.
And don't forget that most CEO pay is related to stock options, not salary (in part caused by the government taxing corporations for their HCE), and the earning potential of options is MUCH greater than salary. That is what is driving the rapid increase in CEO pay.
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Hi Soho, I got this information from " The Hightower Lowdown" volume 10 no. 4 April 2008. I don't have link for you because I get this in the mail. Maybe you can find it though, by internet.
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04-25-2008, 04:18 PM
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Political Guru
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 825
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TakuanSoho
This guy: Hightower Lowdown ?
I would be very very careful of someone who calls himself a populist. Not saying that he might not have some good points, but definitely not a place I would go to get my economic data.
But to go on wealth. Warren Buffett has become much richer during the past 7 years. He has done so not by stealing from people, but from making wise investments and applying is usually accurate predictions to the market (as an investor I have great respect for Buffett, far less in his current guise as a social reformer), what is wrong with his becoming richer?
Can't get anything without spending $10, but I did get the title to this little jewel
Hightower Lowdown | Immigrants come here because globalization took their jobs back there
And all I can say is that if he believes this, then he is an idiot who should be paying me to read him (sorry, but he is. Globalization is NOT "stealing" third world jobs, the very idea that it is causing immigration is laughable).
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Hi Soho, Where do you get your stats from? I like the lowdown because the numbrs are there,easy to read for all kinds of information we hear little about in the msm ,in black and white and without miliions of words of spin from either side confusing the beegeebees out of me. Hows that for a long sentence?
I have nothing agaisnt the rich so long as laws are also made to keep a fair playing field for all of us. Please name one bill passed under the Republican congress that helped the middle class? Please don't use a bill that gave the middle class a bone in order to give the rich a much bigger bone like medicaid part D?
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04-25-2008, 04:18 PM
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Political Guru
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 825
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TakuanSoho
This guy: Hightower Lowdown ?
I would be very very careful of someone who calls himself a populist. Not saying that he might not have some good points, but definitely not a place I would go to get my economic data.
But to go on wealth. Warren Buffett has become much richer during the past 7 years. He has done so not by stealing from people, but from making wise investments and applying is usually accurate predictions to the market (as an investor I have great respect for Buffett, far less in his current guise as a social reformer), what is wrong with his becoming richer?
Can't get anything without spending $10, but I did get the title to this little jewel
Hightower Lowdown | Immigrants come here because globalization took their jobs back there
And all I can say is that if he believes this, then he is an idiot who should be paying me to read him (sorry, but he is. Globalization is NOT "stealing" third world jobs, the very idea that it is causing immigration is laughable).
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Hi Soho, Where do you get your stats from? I like the lowdown because the numbrs are there,easy to read for all kinds of information we hear little about in the msm ,in black and white and without miliions of words of spin from either side confusing the beegeebees out of me. Hows that for a long sentence?
I have nothing agaisnt the rich so long as laws are also made to keep a fair playing field for all of us. Please name one bill passed under the Republican congress that helped the middle class? Please don't use a bill that gave the middle class a bone in order to give the rich a much bigger bone like medicaid part D?
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04-25-2008, 04:39 PM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 4,588
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lassie
Hi Soho, I got this information from " The Hightower Lowdown" volume 10 no. 4 April 2008. I don't have link for you because I get this in the mail. Maybe you can find it though, by internet.
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This guy: Hightower Lowdown ?
I would be very very careful of someone who calls himself a populist. Not saying that he might not have some good points, but definitely not a place I would go to get my economic data.
But to go on wealth. Warren Buffett has become much richer during the past 7 years. He has done so not by stealing from people, but from making wise investments and applying is usually accurate predictions to the market (as an investor I have great respect for Buffett, far less in his current guise as a social reformer), what is wrong with his becoming richer?
Can't get anything without spending $10, but I did get the title to this little jewel
Hightower Lowdown | Immigrants come here because globalization took their jobs back there
And all I can say is that if he believes this, then he is an idiot who should be paying me to read him (sorry, but he is. Globalization is NOT "stealing" third world jobs, the very idea that it is causing immigration is laughable).
Last edited by TakuanSoho; 04-25-2008 at 04:42 PM.
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04-26-2008, 02:56 AM
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Machiavelli Incarnate
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Merrimack, NH
Posts: 4,242
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TakuanSoho
Uhm, that wasn't what "voodo economics" was George.
I mean seriously, people are going to laugh at you if you say things like this. This is PURE Keynesian economics, this is the VERY opposite of what George Bush Sr was talking about. That you think what you do shows that you are completely ignorant of economics and economic theory.
The rebates will provide a small lift to Q2/3 economic activity. It might help prevent this from becoming a recession. More importantly there is a psychological aspect to this, even more importantly there is a policy aspect to this which makes it far more benefical than the mere economic stimulus provides.
If you actually care to know, I would be happy to tell you. But you have to be willing to listen.
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Boy, you are spinning a lot of voodoo.
How handing out cash by cutting taxes vs handing out cash by sending out cash as a reward for paying taxes while in both cases spending lots more than taxes brings in is different, I can't understand.
Keynes certainly never invented the government spending more than it collected in taxes. If Keynesian means anything, it means the government investing when business won't in order to expand the government, as part of the observation or definition of GDP being the total of production plus government spending.
Keynes model led to the various investments of FDR which created a lot of art, planted a lot of trees, built dams, then with Eisenhower, created a massive investment in highways, and in education, and then with JFK/LBJ, massive boosts in investment in technology, from soup to nuts with investments in colleges and universities, investments in students, especially with the GI Bill, and lots of R&D funded by multiple government programs.
Bush's tax rebates and cuts aren't Keynesian because they don't stimulate the economy, at least not by any metric that makes sense to most people.
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04-26-2008, 03:55 AM
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Seasoned Veteran
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Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: A Police State
Posts: 52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TakuanSoho
Do you have a house?
Do you have a job?
If so, then you have no idea what you are talking about.
Sorry to be so harsh, but that is the case. Depressions are nasty people. Depressions are not worrying about not being able to make ends meet, depressions are when the ends don't meet. It's when starvation is the reality not a possibility.
Now I don't want to downplay the hardship that people are experiencing, but at the same time people really need to get some perspective.
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While this was directed at lassie, I have to ask if this is your measure of where we are in our Economy on a personal basis? Because I would like to answer this accurately, and for the record, don't ever assume what a person will or will not do or think about. When you assume, you can very easilly make an ass out of u and me at the same time.
Since this is your so called idea of how to measure the economy, I'd like to reply to this.
Last October, three out of three adults in my house were employed full time. As of january we are down to 1 full time and one part time. No benefits anymore for two of the adults, and the three children lost their coverage too. The other full time job does not provide healthcare benefits and is at minimum wage.
Harsh? You have no idea what people around here are going through. Starvation? That is much closer now than ever before. Right now, with a houshold of 6, the fridge is 1/3 full only. No soda, no chips or things considered luxery foods. All that ended on New Years and never was possible again.
But that isn't my measure of if we're sliding into a serious Depression. My measure is when my wife went to the food bank three weeks ago, the first time we ever considered using one because we are eating 1 course meals so we have food three times a day. She couldn't get any food, not even a can of tuna, because they only had enough to give to their current, existing list of folks and they are turning away new applicants.
We were refered to a larger city which has a food bank that is 110 miles away. Too far gas wise, but my Wife did call them on our pre-paid cell phone. It's the only phone we got now. They informed her that they are considering turning away people too, so good thing we didn't drive up and commit fuel to the trip. So the food bank is out of range and running out of food themselves. Today for dinner we had spaghetti. No sauce. No meatballs. No parmasean cheese. No garlic bread, like we used to. Just the pasta and a dollop of butter so it won't glue together on the plate.
Our main land line is turned off. Our Cable TV is turned off. I just spent the last 8 hours listening to my neighbor from two houses up crying her eyes out because they shut off her power today, and she didn't know what to do. She has been out of a job for a month now, used to work as an assistant manager for Winn Dixie. Used to.
The local paper has two jobs in the want ads section. One is to call an 800 number and listen to a sales pitch for investing into a new business. The second one is for the US Army. All the adults in my house including me are too old for them anyways.
All we got left to communicate with the outside world is our one pre-paid cell phone that gives 500 minutes for 29.99 and this 2 year old computer on a 21.95 lowest bandwidth ever sold dsl connection. That is our monthly entertainment budget. The closest theater around here is a 1 hour drive. even if they were a two minute walk, we wouldn't go. My wife and I used to go see 1 movie a month together. Our time to get out and hold hands and have some fun. In 2007, we saw 12 movies in the box office. In 2008, the count is 0.
So yeah, personally and for this rural part of America, I know what the hell I'm talking about. I measure the effects on the people now, as we're not the only parts of rural America effected like this. It's bad and getting worse. Whatever forumla you're using, you might want to revise it. At least I'm not going to assume you won't think it over. That type of stance is unintelligent to say the least.
You go off and mention the word perspective. Pick anybody you like in Central Florida, Nothern Georgia, Western Texas or anywhere in Pennsylvania that isn't considered city and live in their shoes and on their modified diets and budgets. I know these areas because that is where I have family and friends, and they aren't much better off than I am. True perspective comes when You along with Family and Friends mostly go from upper middle class to below the poverty line in 6 months. Believe me, we've gotten the friggin message. There is a recession on, and it's going to catch up with a lot more people than my family and friends before it starts getting better. Far more.
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Last edited by Gherick; 04-26-2008 at 03:59 AM.
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