Quote:
Originally Posted by TakuanSoho
Do you realize how big the oil futures market is? How much money is involved? No single entity or organized collection of entities has the ability to manipulate it any longer. Is there speculation? Yes. Is oil overpriced? Yes. But as in all bubbles, the reason is not conspiracy, but that many people independently believe that these values are rational. And as long as there are supply concerns, as long as the US dollar is weak, and as long as consumption levels continue to rise, the speculation will continue. The moment any of those three things change, you will see the speculation collapse (as the bubble collapses).
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First of all, why do you make a condescending assumption that I know nothing about oil future traders? Do you think I pull this stuff out of my ass?
Oil future traders are not living on some remote island on Venus.
Oil future traders sell oil contracts. That means there must be a 1. Source for oil and 2. A buyer. That means there are three elements involved, not one as you suggest.
Now, are you telling me that oil future traders can not be pressured into stopping this BS?
Yes or No?
Oil was $51 a barrel in Jan. 2007 (NYMEX Light sweet crude). The value of the
UNITED KINGDOM POUND was 1.8434 versus the USD.
This morning: Oil is $137. a barrel, the pound is 1.9469 versus the USD.
Going back: 1998 value of the Pound versus the USD was 1.6573.
The price for a barrel of oil was $18 a barrel in that same year.
The demand for energy has leveled off and there are no supply concerns.
I can't count how many times OPEC has rejected the idea to increase their oil production. Have you heard any members of OPEC say "We can not increase oil production because we are running out of oil?"
Yes or No?
One of my neighbors is an executive for BP. He travels to all of their new oil fields around the world. He says that BP is developing new oil reserves all over the globe and many more have been found. Using his own words "We have oil running out of our asses"
