Well, Timms was only an example, but I do think Brown would prefer somebody with economic experience. I do agree with you however, that Timms will not have a place in number 12. I think he has little experience with the press, and he surely has better abilities than that.

It must be appreciated that French public perception is the important factor, and in France, Royal is not exactly seen as a candidate who carries much weight (at this stage). Many of her socialist counterparts see her as lacking intellectual weight. Although she appears to be popular, she is being criticised for her lack of substance. For example, she has attacked the 35-hour week, yet has also praised Tony Blair’s employment record, but still denounced a “globalised hyper-class.” She is seen to suffer from an ideological incoherence.

I’m surprised that you say French opinion seems to be moving towards the Socialists, I can’t see it. The Socialists in France have still not become more popular (they were more popular before the last presidential election, and Jospin was expected to win with ease), but it is Royal herself who is attracting more support. Royal’s rating rocketed when other prominent members of her party were lampooning and scoffing at her in a rather public and sexist way, this won’t last. Her popularity increased because of the opposition in her party, but the opposition will largely go when she campaigns: the men will want prominent positions in government. They were trying to stop her being selected, it is too late, and thus now she is their only chance of ending their long absence from Elysee. Thus far, she has kept a low profile, which has surrounded her in mystery, which has served to help her cause, but when she begins to campaign she will loose this.

Nevertheless, I find French opinion polls to be inadequate when predicted elections: they consistently fail, and are generally poor. That is why I would say her modest lead over others does not necessarily represent France, and one cannot judge the next election on that (I believe I am right in thinking that no French poll in the Fifth Republic has accurately predicted the outcome of the second round of a presidential election). The English (speaking) press appears to report only the favourable polls about Royal; however, that is not truly representative (perhaps that is because Royal is more interesting to the audience):

http://www.lefigaro.fr/france/200610..._et_royal.html

I would agree that there appears to being growing nostalgia in France for Mitterrand. This is a product of this year, therefore the reason for this is the anniversary of his death; personally, I don’t think such nostalgia will last another six months. Moreover, this is Mitterrand nostalgia and not nostalgia for the Socialists. Thus, I doubt this feeling can actually increase Royal’s vote. Mitterrand fought hard for France, and would never stand down, he was very much a no nonsense president, and it is this that the French seem to miss. I would say that Royal is not seen to share the same qualities. Although the French may miss Mitterrand’s shrewd personality I don’t think when it came to voting that they would vote to return to his high unemployment, financial scandals, lies about his illegitimate daughter, lies about the attack on the Rainbow Warrior in 1985 (in which Royal is distantly implicated), or lies about his Vichy past.

As you have hinted, Chirac is no longer a popular figure in France, thus the differences between Sarkozy’s supporters and Chirac can only be a good thing for him. Other than those differences (bearing in mind that Chirac is leaving), the UMP is no more divided than the PS. Royal lacks support in the senior Socialist party, and her ‘radical’ beliefs on policy differ greatly from the others in the party: she disgusted her party with her comments on delinquency. Claude Allègre believes she is cutting the party in two.

At this stage it is impossible to predict the outcome of a Fifth Republic presidential election, but if either of them have an edge it would have to be Sarkozy. He has a firm base from which to work, he has had long-term popularity in the polls (and not just a sudden bubble, which could go as soon as it came), he is radically different from the dated Fifth Republic, and he has a great deal of experience.