DC - I don't think Timms has had enough experience to step into the top job in Treasury just yet, though. I think he needs to do a stint at the top of another ministry before he can be accepted as a credible Chancellor. I think he'll get a promotion under Brown, but I don't think it'll be to No. 12. I think Benn has good foundation as experience in International Development to be a credible Chancellor in an outward-looking, probably pro-European Brown Government. Additionally, his experience as an adviser to Blunkett at Education and as a junior minister in the Home office give him a good basis for domestic affairs. If Brown decides to undertake a vigourous approach to Europe to put the pressure on the Tories, I think Benn would be the best pick for Chancellor.

Well, as far as Clarke vs. Brown at Treasury, as you keep pointing out to me, the battle is won on perception, and regardless of what the reality is, Brown is certainly perceived to have done a great job at Treasury, is he not? I doubt very much whether he'd be the front-runner to succeed Blair if that were not the case.

I don't know that Royal has a lack of substance.... she seems to me to be extremely intelligent and shrewd. I wouldn't sell her short. It just seems to me that popular opinion in France seems to moving in favour of the Socialists. There seems to be a growing nostalgia for the Mitterrand era and a weariness with Chirac and all the UMP skisms. I know Sarkozy isn't exactly a "Chirac clone", but it does seem to me that the Socialists are more united than UMP. Admittedly, I'm no expert on French politics (If Britain is Canada's mother country, France is our absentee father *L*) but I have to figure the edge at this point is with the Socialists.