Cordelier, perhaps I was heavy handed with my argument. Brown will want someone who he can control in relative terms, without losing the support of investors. Would Timms loose investment? Ultimately, Brown would take the position for himself, but perhaps we are past those days. Thatcher had much less parliamentary support when Howe served, and he did not have a great deal of free reign from her, they worked together closely implementing Thatcherism.

I agree that Brown would want a steady hand to hold the treasury when he is PM, but isn't that a reason to promote Timms (personally I doubt such a promotion due to pressure). The others in the cabinet simply do not have the experience. Although I doubt Timms, I think the successor will come out of the Treasury itself: more experience to have a steady hand, and it would give Brown more influence. Do you really think it was Brown who put the economy on a sound footing? He has been prudent and followed Tory economic policy, and privatised the Bank of England, but it was Ken Clarke who secured the economic boom. Brown has presided under a more stable world economic condition.

Why do you say the Royal is 'probably' going to be the next Président de la République? Sarkozy has shown himself to be the most popular politician in French politics: he is undoubtedly very charismatic. Frenchmen are becoming less and less satisfied with the Fifth Republic, and he is seen as a radical. Royal appears to owe her popularity in the polls to Chirac becoming more unpopular, good media coverage, and her ‘good’ looks. She really does not appear to have a great deal of substance. The UMP still has a massive majority in l’Assemblée Nationale compared with usual French results. The French hate cohabitation, and for the same reasons you cited for Labour winning the UK election, the UMP is likely to win the next parliamentary election, some will not vote for a president if they think it will cause cohabitation.

I am not saying Royal will not win, but I think the situation is really neck and neck between her and Sarkozy.