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noneof yourbusiness · #1 (**permalink**) 05-04-2008, 10:24 PM

Pignanelli: A political veteran described the county mayor controversy with, "We Republicans have been waiting the last two months for the next shoe to drop. What we didn't know is that Nancy Workman was a centipede!" As a former Democratic Party officer and House minority meader, I wrestled numerous times with issues regarding colleagues and elected officials who violated the public trust and needed to be reprimanded or even ostracized. Thus, I empathize with Salt Lake County Republicans and their recent heart-wrenching and difficult deliberations. All Utahns, regardless of party affiliation, are grateful the GOP took needed action against Workman. Democracy only works if the public has confidence that no politician is above the law.
• The now raging inferno at the House of Workman is burning everyone nearby. A recent victim is Workman's attorney, Greg Skordas, the Democratic attorney general candidate. Skordas is one of the best criminal lawyers in the state, who vigorously represents his clients. Defending Workman required Skordas to publicly question the motives of longtime friend and former employer District Attorney David Yocom. Angered by Skordas' tactics, Yocom pulled his endorsement of Skordas. This is no small matter as Yocom was a leading supporter on the campaign Web site and chaired Skordas' candidacy announcement. Democratic insiders are now expressing concern the Workman case is consuming Skordas' time and hobbling his campaign efforts.

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• The hottest story circulating among political pundits this week was the incredible coup achieved by Mike Zuhl, campaign manager for Scott Matheson Jr. Two weeks ago, the Salt Lake Tribune completed a poll on the governor's race, showing a phenomenal 16 point lead for Jon Huntsman Jr. Learning of these results, Zuhl confronted the Tribune with an internal campaign poll illustrating the candidates were tied with 42 percent each. The Matheson survey was conducted by Peter Hart, a nationally renowned pollster not easily dismissed. Nervous about such different outcomes, the Tribune withheld publishing their poll last weekend (a strange and unprecedented action).
The Tribune's departure from tradition is significant because media outlets always utilize their own political analysis because they control the quality of methodology, questions, respondents etc. Polls conducted by campaigns can be easily manipulated (shocking!) and are usually rejected by reporters. Realizing the Deseret Morning News was about to print their poll, the Tribune was forced to run the story on Wednesday. Politicos noted the Tribune did not perform the standard feature of providing dates when the survey was conducted, verifying the Matheson poll had prompted the Tribune to stall.

The Deseret Morning News poll, conducted by the well-respected Dan Jones, shows Huntsman leading by 9 points. Because of his enormous local polling experience, most authorities believe Jones is closer to the mark. Thus, Huntsman is leading, but the gubernatorial election is still up for grabs.

Webb: Weird Polls. For better or for worse, survey research is becoming a bigger part of campaigns and news media political coverage in every election cycle. We're inundated by polls and, as Frank suggests, we've recently witnessed some pretty strange survey numbers.

The three recent gubernatorial polls, showing wildly divergent results, obviously can't all be accurate. The Tribune poll, done by Valley Research, gave Huntsman a 16-point lead. On the other extreme, the candidates were dead even, 42-42, in the Matheson campaign poll, done by GarinHartYang. That's a hefty difference. The Morning News' Dan Jones & Associates survey came out in the middle, with Huntsman up nine points.

So who is right? I 'd throw out both polls on the extremes and go with Jones. The Hart poll had some strange wrinkles, and sometimes out-of-state firms, even good ones, don't understand Utah political nuances, and they draw a bad sample.

The Valley Research Poll is hard to figure. Another question on the same survey had Initiative 1 losing, while at least three other polls have shown the initiative ahead by wide margins. (Disclosure: My firm, the Exoro Group, is supporting the initiative.) I don't believe either the Tribune or Valley Research was trying to skew anything, but I wouldn't trust that particular poll.

Any survey is just a snapshot in time, and circumstances can change quickly. Voters need to be smart consumers of political news, including survey results. Read widely, don't accept everything at face value, and consult with people you trust.

County Mayor. The final three weeks in the county mayoral race will be great political theater. Democrat Peter Corroon, by default as much as anything else, is clearly the frontrunner at this point, even though he hasn't defined himself very well. Republicans have their white knight in Ellis Ivory, but he's dragging a big weight into battle in the form of Nancy Workman.

Workman apparently won't campaign actively, but she'll get some percentage, maybe 10 to 12, of the vote just by being on the ballot and saying she's in the race. That might be enough to doom Ivory in a four-way contest. He already faces the near-impossible task of raising his profile, getting his messages out, and distributing stickers to Republican voters across the county in a very short time.

For the Republicans, Ivory's chances are about as good as a Hail Mary pass from the 50-yard line as time runs out on the clock.

Workman doesn't want to be a quitter, so instead she's going to be a spoiler. On top of everything else, that's not a great political legacy. She should come to her senses and announce she's absolutely out of the race and throw her support behind Ivory.